Gauthier Gallon
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gauthier Gallon's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 22.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €363k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 900 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1207
- Opponent strength
- 1396
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €134k – €481k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -47% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 900 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 214 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–140%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 10 | 900 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1396 | 1207 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | GK | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1430 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | ESTAC Troyes | Ligue 1 | GK | 30 | 2668 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1453 | 1247 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | ESTAC Troyes | Ligue 1 | GK | 31 | 2790 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1428 | 1332 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | FCV Dender EH | 3 | 246 | 0 | 0 | 1288 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1480 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbin Ruiter Eredivisie · 2021 | 34 | €450k | €275k | fell |
| Robert Zwinkels Eredivisie · 2017 | 34 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Rustam Khudzhamov Premier Liga · 2016 | 34 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Shuichi Gonda Liga Portugal · 2020 | 31 | €325k | €500k | rose |
| Trigueira Liga Portugal · 2021 | 33 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Artur Nigmatullin Premier Liga · 2021 | 30 | €500k | €600k | rose |
| Brad Jones Eredivisie · 2016 | 34 | €750k | €1.0M | rose |
| Olivier Werner Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 33 | €350k | €350k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | FCV Dender EH | Without Club | Unknown | €600k |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Stade Rennais | FCV Dender EH | Free / loan | €600k |
| 5 Jul 2023 | Troyes | Stade Rennais | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | US Orléans | Troyes | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Nîmes Olympique | US Orléans | Free / loan | €300k |
| 15 Nov 2014 | Nîmes B | Nîmes Olympique | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.