Florian Grillitsch
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Florian Grillitsch's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-5.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (1129 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1129 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1533
- Opponent strength
- 1376
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €847k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+219 Elo); league level down (-136 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -69% (IQR -71% to -63%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1129 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | DM | 20 | 1129 | 37% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 1376 | 1533 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | DM | 13 | 622 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1497 | 1216 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | DM | 8 | 604 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1460 | 1415 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2297 | 75% | 1 | 6 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 1528 | 1471 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 10 | 420 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1319 | 1593 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 18 | 1495 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1514 | 1479 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | DM | 26 | 1882 | 62% | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 1513 | 1525 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | DM | 31 | 2411 | 79% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1532 | 1558 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | DM | 30 | 2395 | 78% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1503 | 1573 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | DM | 25 | 1895 | 62% | 1 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 1501 | 1579 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | DM | 23 | 1718 | 56% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1539 | 1516 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | DM | 25 | 1989 | 65% | 1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 1523 | 1459 | 1.02 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 10 | 676 | 2 | 1 | 1491 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Austria | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 306 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1756 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 395 | 2 | 0 | 1473 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 207 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 415 | 1 | 0 | 1735 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 236 | 1 | 0 | 1456 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 5 | 474 | 1 | 3 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Fuster Super League 1 · 2013 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Aleksandr Erokhin Premier Liga · 2021 | 32 | €2.5M | €700k | fell |
| Ilsinho Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Tayfur Bingöl Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €1.7M | €500k | fell |
| João Novais Liga Portugal · 2021 | 28 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Andrew Hjulsager Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 28 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Andrei Prepelita Premier Liga · 2017 | 32 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
| Jesper Jörgensen Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 29 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2025 | Hoffenheim | Braga | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Real Valladolid | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Hoffenheim | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Ajax | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Without Club | Ajax | Unknown | €16.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hoffenheim | Without Club | Unknown | €16.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Werder Bremen | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | W. Bremen II | Werder Bremen | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | W. Bremen U19 | W. Bremen II | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | St. Pölten U18 | W. Bremen U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | St. Pölten U16 | St. Pölten U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | St. Pölten U15 | St. Pölten U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Pottschach Jgd | St. Pölten U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.