Roberto Gagliardini

32 yrs · Central midfielder (also AM, DM) · Italy
Hellas Verona · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
26/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€1.3M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€334k – €1.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€580k – €2.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€396k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€962k – €1.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€334k – €1.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€580k – €2.2M
Projected value (24 months)€396k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.3M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Roberto Gagliardini's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (2216 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 26

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage50.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €871k vs market €1.3M
Expected appreciationVery low-45% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2216 (65% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
51 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1269
Opponent strength
1507
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€396k – €1.1M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -43% to -29%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Hellas VeronaSerie ADM29221665%100.040.11150712690.93
2024/25AC MonzaSerie ACM81735%000.000.21144912740.99
2023/24AC MonzaSerie ACM33236569%120.110.16149114280.98
2022/23Inter MilanSerie ACM1977323%000.000.07142117380.94
2021/22Inter MilanSerie ACM1864119%220.560.17144317310.89
2020/21Inter MilanSerie ACM28123036%320.370.16141617480.90
2019/20Inter MilanSerie ACM24180653%430.350.18138716570.82
2018/19Inter MilanSerie ACM19108532%500.410.24143015650.78
2017/18Inter MilanSerie ACM30198558%000.000.06148415650.86
2016/17Inter MilanSerie ACM18157546%210.170.16148415280.88
2016/17Atalanta BCSerie ACM1377523%020.230.25149915390.88
2015/16Atalanta BCSerie AAM1822%000.000.45147014110.95

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Italy CupAC Monza19000—
2022/23Italy CupInter Milan313400—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan6112001771
2022/23Supercoppa ItalianaInter Milan119001688
2021/22Italy CupInter Milan17800—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan566001732
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan4255011690
2020/21Italy CupInter Milan18100—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueInter Milan4317001649
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan4218001635
2018/19Italy CupInter Milan213600—
2017/18Italy CupInter Milan219500—
2016/17Italy CupInter Milan112000—
2016/17Italy CupAtalanta BC19000—
2015/16Italy CupVicenza Calcio326100—
2013/14Italy CupAtalanta BC19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Filip Djuricic
Serie A · 2023
31€1.8M€1.3Mfell
Ryad Boudebouz
Ligue 1 · 2022
32€2.0M€1.2Mfell
Mehdi Bourabia
Serie A · 2023
32€1.3M€1.0Mfell
Arnold Mvuemba
Ligue 1 · 2017
32€1.0M€600kfell
Simone Padoin
Serie A · 2017
33€800k€500kfell
Joris Marveaux
Ligue 1 · 2014
32€1.0M€500kfell
Alberto Aquilani
Serie A · 2017
33€1.0M€700kfell
Dalbert
Serie A · 2022
29€2.5M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Hellas VeronaWithout ClubUnknown€1.3M
12 Sept 2025Without ClubHellas VeronaUnknown€1.4M
1 Jul 2025MonzaWithout ClubUnknown€1.4M
7 Jul 2023InterMonzaFree / loan€4.0M
1 Aug 2017AtalantaInter€20.5M€15.0M
31 Jul 2017InterAtalantaFree / loan€15.0M
11 Jan 2017AtalantaInterFree / loan€8.0M
28 Jan 2016VicenzaAtalantaFree / loan€700k
28 Jul 2015AtalantaVicenzaFree / loan€700k
30 Jun 2015Spezia CalcioAtalantaFree / loan€700k
1 Sept 2014AtalantaSpezia CalcioFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jun 2014CesenaAtalantaFree / loan€100k
17 Jan 2014AtalantaCesenaFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2013Atalanta U19AtalantaUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2011Atalanta YouthAtalanta U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.