Ivan Provedel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ivan Provedel's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-11.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2430 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1522
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €912k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-84 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -80% to -42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | GK | 27 | 2430 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1485 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | GK | 29 | 2610 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1491 | 1606 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | GK | 30 | 2700 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1491 | 1580 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | GK | 38 | 3412 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1463 | 1578 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | GK | 31 | 2762 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1478 | 1319 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | GK | 29 | 2610 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1454 | 1363 | 0.90 |
| 2018/19 | FC Empoli | Serie A | GK | 16 | 1440 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1475 | 1304 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1561 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 8 | 720 | 1 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1802 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1440 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allan McGregor Super Lig · 2013 | 31 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Federico Marchetti Serie A · 2016 | 33 | €4.0M | €800k | fell |
| Beto Liga Portugal · 2013 | 31 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Paulo Gazzaniga Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Rémy Vercoutre Ligue 1 · 2013 | 33 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Vladimir Gabulov Premier Liga · 2015 | 32 | €6.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Pietro Terracciano Serie A · 2023 | 33 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Zydrunas Karcemarskas Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €2.8M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2022 | Spezia Calcio | Lazio | €2.5M | €3.5M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Empoli | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €400k |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Juve Stabia | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €400k |
| 22 Jan 2020 | FC Empoli | Juve Stabia | Free / loan | €450k |
| 11 Jul 2017 | Chievo Verona | FC Empoli | €1.2M | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Pro Vercelli | Chievo Verona | Free / loan | €800k |
| 8 Jul 2016 | Chievo Verona | Pro Vercelli | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Modena | Chievo Verona | Free / loan | €400k |
| 23 Jul 2015 | Chievo Verona | Modena | Free / loan | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Perugia | Chievo Verona | Free / loan | €450k |
| 3 Jul 2014 | Chievo Verona | Perugia | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | AC Pisa | Chievo Verona | Free / loan | €250k |
| 11 Jul 2013 | Chievo U19 | AC Pisa | Free / loan | €75k |
| 22 Aug 2012 | Udinese U19 | Chievo U19 | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Udinese Youth | Udinese U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Unknown | Udinese Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Pordenone Gio. | Unknown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Treviso Gio. | Pordenone Gio. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.