Rafa Soares

31 yrs · Left-back · Portugal
FC Famalicão · Liga Portugal · Foot: left · Height: 177 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
53/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€211k – €1.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€616k – €3.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€362k – €785k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€466k – €3.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€211k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€616k – €3.3M
Projected value (24 months)€362k – €785k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Rafa Soares's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-3.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 53

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage52.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €555k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-43% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1708 (56% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.21
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.21
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
53 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1406
Opponent strength
1331
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€362k – €785k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; team strength up (+70 Elo); relative output up 62% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -69% to -15%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1708 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalLB24170856%130.210.21133114060.58
2024/25FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalLB26209068%020.090.13135213330.51
2024/25Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos KonstantinoupolitonSuper League 1LB21808%000.000.06116213780.35
2023/24Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos KonstantinoupolitonSuper League 1LB968129%200.260.10115815350.42
2022/23Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos KonstantinoupolitonSuper League 1LB17150364%040.240.17123914520.37
2021/22Vitória Guimarães SCLiga PortugalLB30254883%150.210.19137213990.67
2020/21SD EibarLaligaLB19113233%010.080.13158314151.10
2019/20Vitória Guimarães SCLiga PortugalLB1072524%010.120.11135614180.59
2019/20SD EibarLaligaLB643713%000.000.11154115061.16
2018/19Vitória Guimarães SCLiga PortugalLB27228175%040.160.15137913810.65
2017/18Portimonense SCLiga PortugalLB1191330%020.200.15129413070.64
2016/17Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalLB32288094%350.250.22134113670.58
2015/16Académica CoimbraLiga PortugalLB15130543%150.410.29139311940.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton114001269
2023/24Kypello ElladasPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton436001—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton190001277
2022/23Kypello ElladasPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton532700—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton2135001296
2020/21Copa Del ReySD Eibar318100—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingVitória Guimarães SC4208011229
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueVitória Guimarães SC190001738
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingRio Ave FC2180001395

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Christian Kum
Eredivisie · 2016
31€600k€400kfell
Sébastien Pocognoli
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
31€900k€300kfell
Sabri Sarioglu
Super Lig · 2016
32€2.0M€400kfell
Mark van der Maarel
Eredivisie · 2021
32€500k€400kfell
Mikhail Sivakov
Premier Liga · 2019
31€1.4M€600kfell
Kirill Kombarov
Premier Liga · 2019
32€800k€200kfell
Mykyta Kamenyuka
Premier Liga · 2014
29€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Maksym Imerekov
Premier Liga · 2021
30€600k€700kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Sept 2024PAOKFamalicãoFree / loan€1.2M
1 Jul 2022Vit. GuimarãesPAOKFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2021SD EibarVit. GuimarãesFree / loan€1.6M
31 Jan 2020Vit. GuimarãesSD EibarFree / loan€3.0M
5 Jul 2018PortoVit. GuimarãesFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2018PortimonensePorto€1.5M€1.5M
31 Jan 2018PortoPortimonenseFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jan 2018FulhamPortoFree / loan€2.0M
22 Aug 2017PortoFulhamFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2017Rio AvePortoFree / loan€2.0M
15 Jul 2016PortoRio AveFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2016FC Porto BPortoUnknown€1.0M
30 Jun 2016CoimbraFC Porto BFree / loan€1.0M
15 Jan 2016FC Porto BCoimbraFree / loan€900k
1 Jul 2013FC Porto U19FC Porto BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012FC Porto U17FC Porto U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010FC Porto U15FC Porto U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008FC Porto YouthFC Porto U15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.