André Silva

30 yrs · Striker · Portugal
Elche CF · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 186 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€979k – €2.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.4M – €5.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€839k – €2.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€448k – €4.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€979k – €2.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.4M – €5.3M
Projected value (24 months)€839k – €2.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates André Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 2.4M-5.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (1853 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 54

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average67.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.7 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.3M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-48% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €45.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1853 (54% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.49
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.62
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
67 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1389
Opponent strength
1509
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€839k – €2.5M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 38 pts; changed club; team strength down (-106 Elo); relative output up 37% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -57% to -24%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Elche CFLaligaST31185354%1000.490.62150913890.95
2024/25SV Werder BremenBundesligaST737712%100.240.48157214830.94
2024/25RB LeipzigBundesligaST81244%122.180.43144615330.94
2023/24Real SociedadLaligaST1972821%300.370.36145315881.00
2022/23RB LeipzigBundesligaST31174157%440.410.33151716851.04
2021/22RB LeipzigBundesligaST33208068%1150.690.47151316631.05
2020/21Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaST32277391%2881.170.79151216021.06
2019/20Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaST25158052%1240.910.63151315351.06
2019/20AC MilanSerie AST1612%000.000.34136115900.82
2018/19Sevilla FCLaligaST27216463%920.460.41154515771.14
2017/18AC MilanSerie AST2492427%200.190.34150615550.86
2016/17FC PortoLiga PortugalST32245680%1660.810.51134015450.58
2015/16FC PortoLiga PortugalST942014%120.640.37134915150.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyElche CF14500—
2024/25Dfb PokalRB Leipzig39701—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueRB Leipzig485001754
2024/25Dfb PokalSV Werder Bremen14500—
2023/24Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad524410—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueReal Sociedad292001741
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueRB Leipzig8533321677
2022/23Dfb PokalRB Leipzig427023—
2022/23Franz Beckenbauer SupercupRB Leipzig138001847
2021/22Dfb PokalRB Leipzig642322—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueRB Leipzig6410311720
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueRB Leipzig6307111609
2020/21Dfb PokalEintracht Frankfurt218012—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueEintracht Frankfurt9658211607
2019/20Dfb PokalEintracht Frankfurt326820—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueSevilla FC6314001530
2018/19Copa Del ReySevilla FC424220—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingSevilla FC289011408
2018/19SupercopaSevilla FC130001851
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueAC Milan10721601488
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingAC Milan4223211415
2017/18Italy CupAC Milan29701—
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueFC Porto8603421576
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Porto2156101667

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mattia Destro
Serie A · 2021
30€2.5M€1.3Mfell
Mbaye Diagne
Premier League · 2021
30€3.0M€2.2Mfell
Florian Thauvin
Serie A · 2024
31€3.0M€5.0Mrose
Modou Sougou
Ligue 1 · 2014
30€2.5M€750kfell
Ishak Belfodil
Bundesliga · 2022
30€2.2M€1.7Mfell
Ola Toivonen
Ligue 1 · 2017
31€2.0M€1.5Mfell
André Hahn
Bundesliga · 2021
31€2.5M€1.2Mfell
Issiar Dia
Ligue 1 · 2017
30€2.0M€100kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Elche CFWithout ClubUnknown€3.0M
18 Aug 2025LeipzigElche CF€1.0M€4.0M
30 Jun 2025Werder BremenLeipzigFree / loan€4.0M
3 Feb 2025LeipzigWerder BremenFree / loan€5.0M
30 Jun 2024Real SociedadLeipzigFree / loan€6.0M
2 Aug 2023LeipzigReal SociedadFree / loan€15.0M
2 Jul 2021FrankfurtLeipzig€23.0M€45.0M
10 Sept 2020AC MilanFrankfurt€3.0M€24.0M
9 Sept 2020FrankfurtAC MilanFree / loan€24.0M
2 Sept 2019AC MilanFrankfurtFree / loan€22.0M
30 Jun 2019Sevilla FCAC MilanFree / loan€22.0M
11 Aug 2018AC MilanSevilla FCFree / loan€22.0M
1 Jul 2017PortoAC Milan€38.0M€22.0M
1 Jul 2016FC Porto BPortoUnknown€2.0M
1 Jul 2013FC Porto U19FC Porto BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012FC Porto U17FC Porto U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Padroense U17FC Porto U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Salgueiros Y15Padroense U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Boavista CJSalgueiros Y15Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Salgueiros YBoavista CJFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.