Florian Thauvin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Florian Thauvin's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-6.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (2462 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 88.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2462 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.62
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1569
- Opponent strength
- 1455
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €2.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; changed club; team strength up (+181 Elo); role change SS -> AM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -65% to -50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | AM | 33 | 2462 | 80% | 11 | 6 | 0.62 | 0.46 | 1455 | 1569 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | SS | 25 | 1972 | 58% | 8 | 3 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 1504 | 1389 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | SS | 29 | 1715 | 50% | 5 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.63 | 1476 | 1420 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | SS | 16 | 542 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1472 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RW | 36 | 2750 | 80% | 8 | 8 | 0.52 | 0.45 | 1430 | 1455 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RW | 2 | 20 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1404 | 1539 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RW | 33 | 2625 | 77% | 16 | 8 | 0.82 | 0.63 | 1451 | 1477 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RW | 35 | 2966 | 87% | 22 | 11 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 1452 | 1601 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RW | 38 | 2976 | 87% | 15 | 10 | 0.76 | 0.60 | 1423 | 1541 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RW | 16 | 946 | 28% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.26 | 1392 | 1458 | 0.78 |
| 2015/16 | Newcastle United | Premier League | RW | 13 | 420 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1556 | 1435 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RW | 36 | 2517 | 74% | 5 | 7 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 1426 | 1527 | 0.80 |
| 2013/14 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RW | 31 | 2089 | 61% | 8 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 1477 | 1471 | 0.79 |
| 2012/13 | SC Bastia | Ligue 1 | RW | 32 | 2259 | 66% | 10 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 1460 | 1419 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 64 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 155 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 485 | 0 | 1 | 1660 |
| 2020/21 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1771 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 228 | 2 | 1 | 1499 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 12 | 763 | 3 | 2 | 1542 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 223 | 1 | 3 | 1396 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 38 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 2 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 237 | 1 | 1 | 1700 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rémy Cabella Ligue 1 · 2023 | 33 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Esteban Cambiasso Serie A · 2014 | 34 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Roman Shirokov Premier Liga · 2013 | 32 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Senad Lulic Serie A · 2018 | 32 | €6.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| Marten de Roon Serie A · 2023 | 32 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Pavel Kaderabek Bundesliga · 2024 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan Serie A · 2021 | 32 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Felipe Melo Super Lig · 2014 | 31 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2025 | Udinese | Lens | €6.0M | €5.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Tigres UANL | Udinese | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Marseille | Tigres UANL | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Newcastle | Marseille | €11.0M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Marseille | Newcastle | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 4 Aug 2016 | Newcastle | Marseille | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Marseille | Newcastle | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 31 Jan 2016 | Newcastle | Marseille | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 19 Aug 2015 | Marseille | Newcastle | €18.4M | €12.0M |
| 2 Sept 2013 | Lille | Marseille | €12.0M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2013 | SC Bastia | Lille | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 31 Jan 2013 | Lille | SC Bastia | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jan 2013 | SC Bastia | Lille | €3.5M | €3.0M |
| 10 Aug 2011 | Grenoble B | SC Bastia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Grenoble U19 | Grenoble B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Grenoble 38 U17 | Grenoble U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Orléans Jugend | Grenoble 38 U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | FCO Ruelle Jgd | Orléans Jugend | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.