Nikolaos Melissas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikolaos Melissas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 2.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €69k vs market €200k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1170 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 3 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1129
- Opponent strength
- 1227
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €98k – €203k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -80% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1170 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–179%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | Super League 1 | GK | 13 | 1170 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1227 | 1129 | 0.43 |
| 2021/22 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | GK | 16 | 1395 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1273 | 1164 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | GK | 7 | 509 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1203 | 1118 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | GK | 6 | 540 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1231 | 1186 | 0.46 |
| 2018/19 | PAS Lamia 1964 | Super League 1 | GK | 11 | 901 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1308 | 1238 | 0.43 |
| 2017/18 | PAS Lamia 1964 | Super League 1 | GK | 4 | 360 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1265 | 1236 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | GK | 2 | 118 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1244 | 1386 | 0.46 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Lamia 1964 | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Lamia 1964 | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Kypello Elladas | AE Sparti | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Kypello Elladas | AS Fokikos Amfissas | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgios Kantimiris Super League 1 · 2016 | 34 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Oleksiy Palamarchuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 32 | €200k | €250k | rose |
| Owain Fôn Williams Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 33 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Marian Kello Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 33 | €350k | €125k | fell |
| Ramazan Köse Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €200k | €25k | fell |
| Korcan Celikay Super Lig · 2021 | 34 | €125k | €25k | fell |
| Craig Samson Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 35 | €325k | €325k | flat |
| Antonio Reguero Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 33 | €250k | €50k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Nea Salamis | AE Larisa | Free / loan | €225k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Panetolikos | Nea Salamis | Free / loan | €250k |
| 21 Aug 2020 | PAOK | Panetolikos | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Volos NFC | PAOK | Free / loan | €300k |
| 21 Aug 2019 | PAOK | Volos NFC | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | PAS Lamia | PAOK | Free / loan | €300k |
| 10 Aug 2017 | PAOK | PAS Lamia | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | AE Sparti | PAOK | Free / loan | €250k |
| 26 Aug 2016 | PAOK | AE Sparti | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Ira. Psachnon | PAOK | Free / loan | €150k |
| 28 Jul 2014 | PAOK | Ira. Psachnon | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Fokikos | PAOK | Free / loan | €150k |
| 8 Aug 2013 | PAOK | Fokikos | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | PAOK U20 | PAOK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.