Oleksiy Palamarchuk
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oleksiy Palamarchuk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 34.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €83k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2250 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1242
- Opponent strength
- 1173
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €61k – €235k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+179 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -73% (IQR -81% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LNZ Cherkasy | Premier Liga | GK | 25 | 2250 | 83% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 1173 | 1242 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Ingulets Petrove | Premier Liga | GK | 29 | 2556 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1195 | 1063 | 0.28 |
| 2022/23 | Ingulets Petrove | Premier Liga | GK | 17 | 1518 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1251 | 1151 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | LNZ Cherkasy | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Kogut Premier Liga · 2023 | 36 | €300k | €75k | fell |
| Emiliano Viviano Super Lig · 2021 | 36 | €350k | €100k | fell |
| Trevor Carson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 36 | €150k | €25k | fell |
| Marafona Super Lig · 2021 | 34 | €900k | €75k | fell |
| Radoslaw Cierzniak Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 32 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Ruud Boffin Super Lig · 2021 | 34 | €425k | €375k | flat |
| Yuriy Pankiv Premier Liga · 2023 | 39 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Kelle Roos Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 32 | €500k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Ingulets | LNZ Cherkasy | Free / loan | €250k |
| 20 Jul 2022 | Girnyk-Sport | Ingulets | Free / loan | €100k |
| 7 Feb 2022 | Chornomorets | Girnyk-Sport | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Balkany Zorya | Chornomorets | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Feb 2014 | FC Odesa | Balkany Zorya | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Dnister | FC Odesa | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Unknown | Dnister | Free / loan | €25k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.