Nicolas Bürgy

31 yrs · Centre-back · Switzerland
Odense Boldklub · Superliga · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€800k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€210k – €777k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€316k – €648k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€362k – €538k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€461k – €438k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€210k – €777k
Model value (performance-implied)€316k – €648k
Projected value (24 months)€362k – €538k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Nicolas Bürgy's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 50

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average14.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €405k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-49% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.47
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €900k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1737 (88% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.10
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
14 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.47 (rank 12)
Team strength (Elo)
1215
Opponent strength
1263
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€362k – €538k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; changed club; league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 51% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -42% to -10%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1737 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
24 (DEF)
Relative output kept
60%–139%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
71%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Odense BoldklubSuperligaCB20173788%200.100.11126312150.47
2024/25Viborg FFSuperligaCB13103652%100.090.07127912220.38
2023/24Viborg FFSuperligaCB15130266%000.000.03132012610.48
2022/23Viborg FFSuperligaCB21189095%000.000.02128913270.47
2021/22Viborg FFSuperligaCB545023%100.200.14132612340.45

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Oddset PokalenOdense Boldklub325600—
2024/25Oddset PokalenViborg FF325210—
2023/24Oddset PokalenViborg FF218000—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingViborg FF5428001401
2022/23Oddset PokalenViborg FF423310—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueBSC Young Boys2180001649

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Gökhan Sazdağı
Super Lig · 2024
30€1.0M€1.2Mrose
Konstantinos Giannoulis
Super League 1 · 2017
30€700k€400kfell
Dario Van den Buijs
Eredivisie · 2024
29€750k€750kflat
Jeffry Fortes
Eredivisie · 2019
30€650k€375kfell
Trent Sainsbury
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
30€750k€600kfell
Berkan Emir
Super Lig · 2020
32€350k€300kflat
Giannis Skondras
Super League 1 · 2020
30€350k€150kfell
Gary Warren
Scottish Premiership · 2017
33€400k€350kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
3 Feb 2025Viborg FFOdense BK€125k€900k
1 Jul 2022Young BoysViborg FF€500k€400k
30 Jun 2022Viborg FFYoung BoysFree / loan€400k
31 Jan 2022Young BoysViborg FFFree / loan€400k
30 Jun 2021SC PaderbornYoung BoysFree / loan€400k
1 Feb 2021Young BoysSC PaderbornFree / loan€400k
30 Jun 2019FC AarauYoung BoysFree / loan€500k
31 Aug 2018Young BoysFC AarauFree / loan€700k
30 Jun 2018FC ThunYoung BoysFree / loan€400k
8 Feb 2017Young BoysFC ThunFree / loan€300k
30 Jun 2016FC WohlenYoung BoysFree / loan€250k
6 Jul 2015Young BoysFC WohlenFree / loan€50k
5 Jul 2015BSC YB U21Young BoysUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2013BSC YB U18BSC YB U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012BSC YB U17BSC YB U18UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.