
Gökhan Sazdağı
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gökhan Sazdağı's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €597k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -59% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1575 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1315
- Opponent strength
- 1287
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €320k – €853k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 29 pts; changed club; team strength up (+90 Elo); relative output down 46% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -63% to -31%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1575 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | RB | 17 | 1305 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1287 | 1350 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | RB | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1355 | 1147 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | RB | 30 | 2619 | 81% | 0 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1299 | 1225 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | RB | 34 | 2906 | 85% | 0 | 5 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 1306 | 1208 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | RW | 31 | 1993 | 62% | 1 | 5 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 1295 | 1255 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | LW | 24 | 961 | 28% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 1215 | 1216 | 0.42 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bart Schenkeveld Super League 1 · 2022 | 31 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Giannis Kotsiras Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Vangelis Ikonomou Super League 1 · 2018 | 31 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Lionel Carole Super Lig · 2023 | 32 | €1.1M | €325k | fell |
| Zoran Nizic Premier Liga · 2022 | 33 | €750k | €300k | fell |
| Kaspars Dubra Premier Liga · 2021 | 31 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Ahmet Oğuz Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €650k | €400k | fell |
| Onur Bulut Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Sept 2025 | Kayserispor | Besiktas | €1.5M | €1.2M |
| 28 Jul 2021 | Without Club | Kayserispor | Unknown | €275k |
| 28 Apr 2021 | Boluspor | Without Club | Unknown | €275k |
| 16 Aug 2019 | Adanaspor | Boluspor | Unknown | €75k |
| 19 Jul 2018 | Hatayspor | Adanaspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 19 Jan 2018 | Karagümrük | Hatayspor | Free / loan | €400k |
| 8 Sept 2017 | Gazisehir | Karagümrük | Unknown | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Manisaspor | Gaziantep BB | Free / loan | €400k |
| 11 Jan 2017 | Gaziantep BB | Manisaspor | Free / loan | €400k |
| 13 Aug 2015 | Fenerbahce U21 | Gaziantep BB | €35k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Manisaspor | Fenerbahce U21 | Free / loan | €800k |
| 18 Aug 2014 | Fenerbahce U21 | Manisaspor | Free / loan | €125k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Turgutluspor | Fenerbahce U21 | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Aug 2013 | Fenerbahce U21 | Turgutluspor | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Fenerbahce U18 | Fenerbahce U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Fenerbahce U17 | Fenerbahce U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 16 Sept 2010 | Selimiye Yth | Fenerbahce U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.