Gökhan Sazdağı

32 yrs · Right-back (also LW, RW) · Türkiye
Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.2M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€274k – €1.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€308k – €835k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€320k – €853k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€799k – €561k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€274k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€308k – €835k
Projected value (24 months)€320k – €853k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Gökhan Sazdağı's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 27

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average26.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.8 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €597k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciationVery low-59% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1575 (52% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
26 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1315
Opponent strength
1287
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€320k – €853k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 29 pts; changed club; team strength up (+90 Elo); relative output down 46% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -63% to -31%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1575 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigRB17130543%000.000.06128713500.40
2025/26KayserisporSuper LigRB32709%000.000.15135511470.40
2024/25KayserisporSuper LigRB30261981%040.140.13129912250.39
2023/24KayserisporSuper LigRB34290685%050.150.18130612080.45
2022/23KayserisporSuper LigRW31199362%150.270.36129512550.50
2021/22KayserisporSuper LigLW2496128%200.190.30121512160.42

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Bart Schenkeveld
Super League 1 · 2022
31€1.0M€1.2Mrose
Giannis Kotsiras
Super League 1 · 2022
30€800k€800kflat
Vangelis Ikonomou
Super League 1 · 2018
31€600k€250kfell
Lionel Carole
Super Lig · 2023
32€1.1M€325kfell
Zoran Nizic
Premier Liga · 2022
33€750k€300kfell
Kaspars Dubra
Premier Liga · 2021
31€600k€250kfell
Ahmet Oğuz
Super Lig · 2024
31€650k€400kfell
Onur Bulut
Super Lig · 2024
30€2.0M€600kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
8 Sept 2025KayserisporBesiktas€1.5M€1.2M
28 Jul 2021Without ClubKayserisporUnknown€275k
28 Apr 2021BolusporWithout ClubUnknown€275k
16 Aug 2019AdanasporBolusporUnknown€75k
19 Jul 2018HataysporAdanasporFree / loan€100k
19 Jan 2018KaragümrükHataysporFree / loan€400k
8 Sept 2017GazisehirKaragümrükUnknown€400k
30 Jun 2017ManisasporGaziantep BBFree / loan€400k
11 Jan 2017Gaziantep BBManisasporFree / loan€400k
13 Aug 2015Fenerbahce U21Gaziantep BB€35k€800k
30 Jun 2015ManisasporFenerbahce U21Free / loan€800k
18 Aug 2014Fenerbahce U21ManisasporFree / loan€125k
30 Jun 2014TurgutlusporFenerbahce U21Free / loan€25k
1 Aug 2013Fenerbahce U21TurgutlusporFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Fenerbahce U18Fenerbahce U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Fenerbahce U17Fenerbahce U18UnknownData unavailable
16 Sept 2010Selimiye YthFenerbahce U17Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.