Marko Pjaca

31 yrs · Left winger (also AM, SS) · Croatia
FC Twente Enschede · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 186 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€343k – €1.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€537k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€347k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€546k – €969k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€343k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€537k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€347k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Marko Pjaca's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (912 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 49

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average34.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €458k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-51% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €18.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
912 (30% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.30
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.30
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
35 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1403
Opponent strength
1271
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€347k – €1.1M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -71% to -58%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 912 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (ATT)
Relative output kept
73%–122%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
61%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieLW2791230%210.300.30127114030.43
2022/23FC EmpoliSerie ALW1752015%000.000.36150013880.94
2021/22Torino FCSerie AAM24114834%300.240.34143114230.89
2020/21Genoa CFCSerie ASS35141341%320.320.57152013940.90
2019/20RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueLW41606%100.560.34125514430.63
2018/19ACF FiorentinaSerie ALW1974422%110.240.34143613840.78
2017/18FC Schalke 04BundesligaLW72598%200.690.40147916181.04
2016/17Juventus FCSerie ALW1444813%000.000.12142118320.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede26501—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueGNK Dinamo Zagreb6344131608
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingGNK Dinamo Zagreb2143201554
2021/22Italy CupTorino FC29500—
2020/21Italy CupGenoa CFC317000—
2019/20Italy CupJuventus FC11500—
2017/18Dfb PokalFC Schalke 04212800—
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC494101565
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingGNK Dinamo Zagreb185211290
2016/17Italy CupJuventus FC23400—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Nicolai Jörgensen
Super Lig · 2022
31€1.0M€400kfell
Victor Sá
Premier Liga · 2024
30€2.0M€2.5Mrose
Benjamin Verbic
Super League 1 · 2024
31€2.0M€500kfell
Wilson Eduardo
Super Lig · 2022
32€1.3M€600kfell
Davidson
Super Lig · 2024
33€850k€350kfell
Nacer Chadli
Super Lig · 2022
33€2.8M€400kfell
Igor de Camargo
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
31€2.0M€700kfell
Rachid Ghezzal
Super Lig · 2024
32€2.0M€600kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Sept 2025Dinamo ZagrebFC TwenteFree / loan€2.7M
4 Jul 2024HNK RijekaDinamo Zagreb€1.5M€2.5M
1 Sept 2023JuventusHNK RijekaFree / loan€1.7M
30 Jun 2023FC EmpoliJuventusFree / loan€1.7M
1 Sept 2022JuventusFC EmpoliFree / loan€3.5M
30 Jun 2022TorinoJuventusFree / loan€3.5M
28 Jul 2021JuventusTorinoFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2021GenoaJuventusFree / loan€4.0M
19 Sept 2020JuventusGenoaFree / loan€5.0M
30 Jun 2020RSC AnderlechtJuventusFree / loan€6.0M
31 Jan 2020JuventusRSC AnderlechtFree / loan€7.5M
30 Jun 2019FiorentinaJuventusFree / loan€10.0M
7 Aug 2018JuventusFiorentinaFree / loan€15.0M
30 Jun 2018FC Schalke 04JuventusFree / loan€15.0M
4 Jan 2018JuventusFC Schalke 04Free / loan€15.0M
21 Jul 2016Dinamo ZagrebJuventus€29.4M€18.0M
1 Jul 2014NK LokomotivaDinamo Zagreb€1.0M€950k
28 Jan 2012Lokomotiva U17NK LokomotivaUnknownData unavailable
2 Jul 2010NK ZET 1927Lokomotiva U17UnknownData unavailable
4 Sept 2009D. Zagreb Yth.NK ZET 1927UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.