Kévin Rodrigues

32 yrs · Left-back (also LW) · Portugal
Gaziantep FK · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 170 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
35/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€800k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€190k – €588k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€265k – €803k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€269k – €588k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€323k – €614k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€190k – €588k
Model value (performance-implied)€265k – €803k
Projected value (24 months)€269k – €588k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Kévin Rodrigues's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 35

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage37.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €253k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-56% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2289 (75% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.20
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.26
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
37 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1167
Opponent strength
1263
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€269k – €588k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-102 Elo); relative output up 156% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -58% to -26%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Gaziantep FKSuper LigLB28228975%230.200.26126311670.40
2024/25KasimpasaSuper LigLB28228270%110.080.10128312680.39
2023/24Adana DemirsporSuper LigLB1192327%010.100.10128212500.45
2022/23Adana DemirsporSuper LigLB33281087%250.220.16129814100.50
2021/22Rayo VallecanoLaligaLB1343313%000.000.10151713891.05
2020/21SD EibarLaligaLB22109232%110.160.19155714151.10
2019/20CD LeganésLaligaLW26193457%120.140.32151514821.16
2019/20Real SociedadLaligaLB150%000.000.18165315671.16
2018/19Real SociedadLaligaLB748314%000.000.09153715361.14
2017/18Real SociedadLaligaLB20163348%120.170.16154015351.11
2016/17Real SociedadLaligaLB21033%000.000.17184715621.11
2012/13FC ToulouseLigue 1LB180%000.000.13141614790.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingAdana Demirspor6519001434
2021/22Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano425900—
2020/21Copa Del ReySD Eibar219000—
2019/20Copa Del ReyCD Leganés13300—
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueReal Sociedad2151001590

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Veysel Sarı
Super Lig · 2021
33€550k€500kflat
Manuel Pascali
Scottish Premiership · 2015
34€400k€200kfell
Vitaliy Yermakov
Premier Liga · 2023
31€400k€100kfell
Andrew Davies
Scottish Premiership · 2016
32€500k€350kfell
Joren Dom
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
33€400k€250kfell
Jim Goodwin
Scottish Premiership · 2015
34€350k€300kflat
Sebastian Mladen
Super League 1 · 2024
33€450k€250kfell
Erdoğan Yeşilyurt
Super Lig · 2024
31€1.2M€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Gaziantep FKWithout ClubUnknown€800k
14 Jul 2025KasimpasaGaziantep FKFree / loan€1.3M
12 Aug 2024Al-QadsiahKasimpasaFree / loan€1.8M
31 Jan 2024Adana DemirsporAl-QadsiahFree / loan€2.0M
7 Jul 2022Real SociedadAdana DemirsporFree / loan€1.8M
30 Jun 2022Rayo VallecanoReal SociedadFree / loan€1.8M
11 Aug 2021Real SociedadRayo VallecanoFree / loan€3.5M
30 Jun 2021SD EibarReal SociedadFree / loan€3.5M
12 Sept 2020Real SociedadSD EibarFree / loan€2.4M
20 Jul 2020CD LeganésReal SociedadFree / loan€2.4M
2 Sept 2019Real SociedadCD LeganésFree / loan€3.0M
1 Jul 2017Real Sociedad BReal SociedadUnknown€300k
1 Jul 2015DijonReal Sociedad BFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2014Toulouse BDijonFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Toulouse U19Toulouse BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Toulouse FC U17Toulouse U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Toulouse For.Toulouse FC U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Bayonne FC JgdToulouse For.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.