Joshua Brenet
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joshua Brenet's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €316k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1681 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1060
- Opponent strength
- 1173
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €260k – €897k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -51% to -14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1681 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Livingston FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 14 | 884 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 1173 | 981 | 0.31 |
| 2025/26 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | RB | 11 | 797 | 26% | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 1265 | 1147 | 0.40 |
| 2023/24 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | RB | 15 | 1080 | 35% | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.18 | 1366 | 1466 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | RB | 32 | 2514 | 82% | 7 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 1344 | 1505 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | RB | 13 | 1000 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 1342 | 1435 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | RB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1407 | 1525 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | LB | 4 | 258 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1340 | 1393 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LB | 14 | 905 | 30% | 2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.14 | 1502 | 1573 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 32 | 2822 | 92% | 1 | 5 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 1313 | 1636 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 20 | 1262 | 41% | 1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 1338 | 1609 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 27 | 1984 | 65% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1308 | 1658 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RB | 18 | 1238 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1333 | 1545 | 0.52 |
| 2013/14 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RB | 12 | 1008 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1322 | 1460 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Curaçao | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Livingston FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 4 | 390 | 0 | 2 | 1368 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 4 | 360 | 1 | 0 | 1407 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 99 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 138 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1855 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 118 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | 1763 |
| 2016/17 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1452 |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 572 | 0 | 0 | 1686 |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 348 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1328 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1383 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 355 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2014/15 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1541 |
| 2013/14 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidcley Super League 1 · 2024 | 31 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Andriy Tsurikov Premier Liga · 2024 | 32 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Tiago Lopes Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €225k | €75k | fell |
| Oleksandr Chornomorets Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Declan Gallagher Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 32 | €425k | €200k | fell |
| Alpaslan Öztürk Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Mads Greve Superliga · 2021 | 32 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| Atinc Nukan Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €675k | €550k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | Livingston FC | Kayserispor | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Oct 2025 | Without Club | Livingston FC | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Al-Rayyan | Without Club | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 15 Sept 2024 | Without Club | Al-Rayyan | Unknown | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | FC Twente | Without Club | Unknown | €3.5M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Hoffenheim | FC Twente | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Vitesse | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Hoffenheim | Vitesse | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | PSV | Hoffenheim | €3.5M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | PSV U21 | PSV | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | PSV U19 | PSV U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Zeeburgia U17 | PSV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | ASC Waterw. Yth | Zeeburgia U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Almere City FC | ASC Waterw. Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Roda JC Kerkrade | Almere City FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.