Kiki Kouyaté
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kiki Kouyaté's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1139 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1365
- Opponent strength
- 1403
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €477k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; changed club; team strength up (+129 Elo); league level down (-87 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -63% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1139 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 21 | 1139 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1403 | 1365 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CB | 11 | 728 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1471 | 1236 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CB | 23 | 1930 | 63% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1475 | 1434 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CB | 15 | 1259 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1444 | 1440 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | CB | 30 | 2666 | 78% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1423 | 1308 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 1961 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1448 | 1341 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Royal Antwerp FC | 3 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1334 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriele Angella Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 30 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Dany Nounkeu Super Lig · 2016 | 30 | €1.6M | €300k | fell |
| Collins Fai Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 29 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Anthony Weber Ligue 1 · 2016 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ivo Pinto Liga Portugal · 2020 | 30 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Kadir Keles Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
| Ramin Rezaeian Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 28 | €1.0M | €475k | fell |
| Pedro Rebocho Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2025 | Montpellier | Royal Antwerp | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 20 Jan 2023 | FC Metz | Montpellier | €6.0M | €3.5M |
| 25 Aug 2020 | Troyes | FC Metz | €3.5M | €2.2M |
| 23 Jan 2019 | Sporting CP U23 | Troyes | €700k | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting B | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | €300k |
| 20 Aug 2016 | KACM Marrakech | Sporting B | €450k | Data unavailable |
| 20 Jul 2015 | AS Bamako | KACM Marrakech | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.