Ambrosiy Chachua
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ambrosiy Chachua's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (2477 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €271k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2477 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1173
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €108k – €390k
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 61% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -59% to -31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | AM | 30 | 2477 | 92% | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.25 | 1173 | 1213 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | AM | 29 | 2430 | 90% | 10 | 6 | 0.59 | 0.62 | 1214 | 1185 | 0.28 |
| 2017/18 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | LM | 13 | 800 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.28 | 1350 | 1265 | 0.62 |
| 2016/17 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | AM | 30 | 1724 | 60% | 4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.35 | 1347 | 1257 | 0.56 |
| 2015/16 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | DM | 16 | 821 | 35% | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 1373 | 1264 | 0.54 |
| 2014/15 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | DM | 20 | 1299 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1402 | 1255 | 0.54 |
| 2013/14 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | DM | 11 | 801 | 31% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1434 | 1306 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 2 | 115 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | 2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Larsson Super League 1 · 2023 | 32 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Valeriy Kucherov Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Sebastian Mladen Super League 1 · 2023 | 32 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Gennadiy Pasich Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Jorge Díaz Super League 1 · 2021 | 32 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Joe Newell Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €850k | €200k | fell |
| Ismail Aissati Super Lig · 2020 | 32 | €600k | €100k | fell |
| John Rankin Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 32 | €450k | €275k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Volyn Lutsk | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €200k |
| 20 Jul 2019 | Torpedo Kutaisi | Volyn Lutsk | Free / loan | €250k |
| 10 Jan 2019 | Akzhayik | Torpedo Kutaisi | Unknown | €400k |
| 31 Jul 2018 | Karpaty Lviv | Akzhayik | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Karpaty II | Karpaty Lviv | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | UFK Lviv | Karpaty II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.