Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alireza Jahanbakhsh's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (531 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 22.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €323k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 531 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1207
- Opponent strength
- 1346
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €218k – €478k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 28 pts; changed club; league level up (+62 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -58% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 531 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 16 | 531 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1346 | 1207 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | RW | 19 | 1456 | 48% | 3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.44 | 1313 | 1252 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 16 | 450 | 15% | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.24 | 1363 | 1593 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 28 | 1216 | 40% | 5 | 7 | 0.89 | 0.40 | 1377 | 1639 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 27 | 1562 | 51% | 4 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.27 | 1304 | 1609 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | RW | 21 | 522 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.42 | 1607 | 1492 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | RW | 10 | 308 | 9% | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 1562 | 1449 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | RW | 19 | 1022 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1549 | 1417 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 33 | 2839 | 93% | 21 | 12 | 1.05 | 0.65 | 1317 | 1489 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 29 | 2229 | 73% | 10 | 9 | 0.77 | 0.58 | 1366 | 1369 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 23 | 1670 | 55% | 3 | 6 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 1314 | 1460 | 0.58 |
| 2013/14 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | RW | 27 | 1288 | 42% | 5 | 4 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 1337 | 1238 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | FCV Dender EH | 5 | 372 | 1 | 1 | 1300 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Iran | 2 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 1 | 47 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1649 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1603 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 9 | 620 | 3 | 1 | 1501 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 283 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 5 | 332 | 3 | 0 | 1385 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 76 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 4 | 328 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 475 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 362 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 333 | 1 | 0 | 1474 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 321 | 0 | 1 | 1401 |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 229 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 169 | 0 | 0 | 1437 |
| 2013/14 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 259 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom De Sutter Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 34 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Darko Bodul Premier Liga · 2019 | 30 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Marinho Liga Portugal · 2015 | 32 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Nacer Chadli Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 35 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Deniz Yilmaz Super Lig · 2018 | 30 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Tom Boere Eredivisie · 2023 | 31 | €300k | €275k | flat |
| Mehdi Carcela-González Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 33 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Nicklas Pedersen Eredivisie · 2019 | 32 | €600k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | FCV Dender EH | Without Club | Unknown | €500k |
| 4 Nov 2025 | Without Club | FCV Dender EH | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Heerenveen | Without Club | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 6 Nov 2024 | Without Club | Heerenveen | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Feyenoord | Without Club | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 17 Jul 2021 | Brighton | Feyenoord | €1.0M | €5.0M |
| 25 Jul 2018 | AZ Alkmaar | Brighton | €22.5M | €18.0M |
| 3 Aug 2015 | NEC Nijmegen | AZ Alkmaar | €1.8M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Damash Gilan | NEC Nijmegen | €250k | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Damash Teh | Damash Gilan | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Damash U19 | Damash Teh | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.