Pavlo Polegenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pavlo Polegenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 16.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €114k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2022 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 17 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1136
- Opponent strength
- 1186
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €97k – €337k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -25% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | RB | 13 | 1088 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 1186 | 1070 | 0.25 |
| 2025/26 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | RB | 12 | 934 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1209 | 1213 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | RB | 22 | 1734 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 1202 | 1185 | 0.28 |
| 2022/23 | PFK Lviv | Premier Liga | RM | 9 | 757 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 1245 | 1029 | 0.38 |
| 2022/23 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | RM | 12 | 112 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1280 | 1406 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | Ingulets Petrove | Premier Liga | RB | 17 | 1460 | 95% | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 1340 | 1177 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Desna Chernigiv | Premier Liga | RB | 10 | 602 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1369 | 1331 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | RB | 11 | 614 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1398 | 1267 | 0.54 |
| 2018/19 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | RB | 14 | 1012 | 51% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1331 | 1310 | 0.57 |
| 2017/18 | Zirka Kropyvnytskyi | Premier Liga | RM | 17 | 1494 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 1346 | 1240 | 0.62 |
| 2016/17 | Zirka Kropyvnytskyi | Premier Liga | RM | 19 | 1395 | 48% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 1332 | 1225 | 0.56 |
| 2015/16 | Goverla Uzhgorod (- 2016) | Premier Liga | RB | 3 | 97 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1454 | 1125 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | Ingulets Petrove | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 3 | 300 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Mariupol | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Mariupol | 4 | 258 | 0 | 0 | 1440 |
| 2018/19 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Ukrainian Cup | Zirka Kropyvnytskyi | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Ukrainian Cup | Goverla Uzhgorod (- 2016) | 1 | 36 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Baldwin Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Petro Stasyuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Diamantis Chouchoumis Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Issam Chebake Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Dimitrios Chatziisaias Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Mikey Devlin Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Karlo Brucic Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Yevgeniy Shevchenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €300k | €400k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | Karpaty Lviv | Obolon | Free / loan | €600k |
| 6 Jul 2023 | Zorya Lugansk | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Mar 2023 | PFC Lviv | Zorya Lugansk | Free / loan | €300k |
| 7 Oct 2022 | Without Club | PFC Lviv | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ingulets | Without Club | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Desna | Ingulets | Free / loan | €400k |
| 17 Sept 2020 | FC Mariupol | Desna | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Zirka | FC Mariupol | Free / loan | €400k |
| 15 Sept 2016 | Dynamo-2 Kyiv | Zirka | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Sept 2015 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Dynamo-2 Kyiv | Unknown | €100k |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Goverla | Dynamo Kyiv II | Free / loan | €100k |
| 17 Jul 2015 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Goverla | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Dynamo Kyiv U17 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.