Yevgeniy Shevchenko

30 yrs · Left-back (also LM) · Ukraine
Obolon Kyiv · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 175 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€400k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€86k – €263k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€277k – €479k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€123k – €352k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€14k – €393k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€86k – €263k
Model value (performance-implied)€277k – €479k
Projected value (24 months)€123k – €352k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Yevgeniy Shevchenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.57x the positional average in the league (2235 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 80

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average8.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.6 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €115k vs market €400k
Expected appreciationVery low-33% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €400k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2235 (83% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.08
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
8 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1070
Opponent strength
1180
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€123k – €352k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-62 Elo); role change LB -> LM; relative output down 51% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -55% to -23%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
37 (all positions)
Relative output kept
87%–128%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
86%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Obolon KyivPremier LigaLM26223583%020.080.13118010700.25
2024/25NK Veres RivnePremier LigaLB24203275%120.130.17118811330.28
2023/24NK Veres RivnePremier LigaLB21178766%200.100.16126911520.34

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupObolon Kyiv14500—
2024/25Ukrainian CupNK Veres Rivne223000—
2023/24Ukrainian CupNK Veres Rivne216100—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jason Holt
Scottish Premiership · 2024
31€300k€100kfell
Oleksandr Demchenko
Premier Liga · 2024
28€600k€500kflat
Scott Pittman
Scottish Premiership · 2024
32€300k€50kfell
Valeriy Kucherov
Premier Liga · 2024
31€400k€200kfell
Andriy Ralyuchenko
Premier Liga · 2023
28€400k€300kfell
Oleksandr Kucherenko
Premier Liga · 2023
32€250k€150kfell
Stephen McGinn
Scottish Premiership · 2019
31€300k€250kflat
Miguel Mellado
Super League 1 · 2023
30€600k€350kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025Veres RivneObolonFree / loan€400k
3 Jul 2023EpicentrVeres RivneFree / loan€175k
23 Aug 2022VPK-AgroEpicentrFree / loan€100k
30 Jul 2021PolissyaVPK-AgroFree / loan€100k
15 Sept 2020ObolonPolissyaFree / loan€150k
2 Mar 2015Lokomotyv KyivObolon-BrovarFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2014UnknownLokomotyv KyivFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Metalurg U19UnknownFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.