Guilherme
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Guilherme's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 25.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €113k vs market €200k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1860 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1230
- Opponent strength
- 1268
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €91k – €205k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 32 pts; relative output down 54% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -19% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | LB | 22 | 1860 | 61% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1268 | 1230 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | LB | 34 | 3000 | 93% | 0 | 8 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 1286 | 1228 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | LB | 37 | 3267 | 96% | 5 | 7 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 1297 | 1284 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | LB | 34 | 3060 | 94% | 2 | 9 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 1292 | 1355 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | LB | 38 | 3417 | 100% | 4 | 5 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 1246 | 1330 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | LB | 36 | 3217 | 89% | 1 | 5 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 1276 | 1225 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | LB | 9 | 763 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1289 | 1226 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Konyaspor | 4 | 315 | 1 | 0 | 1396 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen McManus Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 35 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Mads Agesen Superliga · 2018 | 35 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Cristian Săpunaru Super Lig · 2020 | 36 | €175k | €300k | rose |
| Johnny Thomsen Superliga · 2020 | 38 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Timothy Derijck Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 35 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Frazer Wright Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 35 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Güray Vural Super Lig · 2024 | 36 | €225k | €225k | flat |
| Niels Lodberg Superliga · 2015 | 35 | €300k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2020 | Jagiellonia | Konyaspor | €100k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Nieciecza | Jagiellonia | Free / loan | €750k |
| 29 Aug 2016 | Without Club | Nieciecza | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 10 Jan 2016 | Steaua Bucharest | Without Club | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 2 Feb 2015 | Petrolul | Steaua Bucharest | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Feb 2015 | Greuther Fürth | Petrolul | Free / loan | €700k |
| 12 Aug 2014 | Petrolul | Greuther Fürth | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Concordia | Petrolul | Free / loan | €325k |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Caxias-RS | Concordia | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Porto Alegre-RS | Caxias-RS | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.