Casper Højer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Casper Højer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 16.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €499k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2716 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1268
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €296k – €770k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts; relative output down 67% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -58% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | LB | 32 | 2716 | 89% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1268 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | LB | 27 | 2025 | 63% | 1 | 7 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 1304 | 1228 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | LB | 27 | 2060 | 60% | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 1308 | 1219 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | LB | 20 | 1775 | 90% | 2 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.23 | 1297 | 1335 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | LB | 25 | 2235 | 96% | 1 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 1274 | 1317 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | LB | 22 | 1980 | 85% | 4 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 1323 | 1221 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | LB | 7 | 630 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1290 | 1231 | 0.47 |
| 2017/18 | Lyngby Boldklub | Superliga | LB | 8 | 525 | 22% | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.18 | 1277 | 1197 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Lyngby Boldklub | Superliga | LB | 6 | 435 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1337 | 1299 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 4 | 308 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aarhus GF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1305 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 2 | 163 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | Lyngby Boldklub | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Lyngby Boldklub | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1226 |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | Lyngby Boldklub | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uros Radakovic Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Issam Chebake Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Robson Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 31 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Uğur Çiftçi Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Zeki Yavru Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €650k | €300k | fell |
| Dimitrios Chatziisaias Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Dani Suárez Super League 1 · 2021 | 31 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Sokratis Fytanidis Super League 1 · 2017 | 33 | €500k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sept 2023 | Sparta Prague | C. Rizespor | €900k | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Aarhus GF | Sparta Prague | €700k | €2.5M |
| 7 Feb 2018 | Lyngby BK | Aarhus GF | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Copenhagen U19 | Lyngby BK | Unknown | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Brönshöj BK | Copenhagen U19 | Free / loan | €150k |
| 10 Jul 2013 | Copenhagen U19 | Brönshöj BK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | FCK Youth | Copenhagen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.