Stefan Posch
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Stefan Posch's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-12.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-6.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.5M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1779 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1508
- Opponent strength
- 1506
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €4.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; changed club; team strength down (-94 Elo); role change RB -> CB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -78% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1779 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 16 | 1395 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1506 | 1485 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | Como 1907 | Serie A | RB | 14 | 384 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 1477 | 1589 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | RB | 14 | 709 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1466 | 1559 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 5 | 388 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1342 | 1679 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | RB | 31 | 2418 | 71% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1485 | 1579 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | RB | 30 | 2540 | 74% | 6 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 1466 | 1482 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 1 | 19 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1535 | 1444 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2202 | 72% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1530 | 1479 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 26 | 2123 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1532 | 1525 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2316 | 76% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1522 | 1558 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 17 | 1404 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1518 | 1573 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 9 | 757 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1490 | 1579 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Austria | 3 | 248 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Como 1907 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 6 | 534 | 0 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 2 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1569 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 3 | 284 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 217 | 0 | 0 | 1424 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1750 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 316 | 0 | 0 | 1486 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Paletta Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €5.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Héctor Bellerín Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Michael Lang Bundesliga · 2019 | 28 | €4.5M | €800k | fell |
| Jérôme Roussillon Bundesliga · 2022 | 29 | €4.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Patric Serie A · 2021 | 28 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jeffrey Bruma Bundesliga · 2020 | 29 | €3.2M | €450k | fell |
| Yuto Nagatomo Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Tomas Hubocan Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €6.5M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Mainz | Como | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Como | Mainz | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Bologna | Como | €5.5M | €5.5M |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Como | Bologna | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Bologna | Como | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Atalanta | Bologna | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Bologna | Atalanta | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Hoffenheim | Bologna | €5.0M | €14.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Bologna | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Hoffenheim | Bologna | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Hoffenheim II | Hoffenheim | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hoffenheim U19 | Hoffenheim II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 6 Aug 2015 | Admira Wacker | Hoffenheim U19 | €200k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Admira II | Admira Wacker | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | AKA Admira U18 | FC Admira II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | AKA Admira U16 | AKA Admira U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | AKA Admira U15 | AKA Admira U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Admira Youth | AKA Admira U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 15 Mar 2011 | Sturm Graz Yth | Admira Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | GAK Youth | Sturm Graz Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Leoben Youth | GAK Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Kraubath Jgd. | Leoben Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.