Héctor Bellerín
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Héctor Bellerín's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-13.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.4M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1821 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1482
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €681k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 36 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -69% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RB | 27 | 1821 | 53% | 2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 1482 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RB | 9 | 578 | 17% | 0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 1452 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RB | 23 | 1714 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1481 | 1520 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RM | 10 | 441 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 1365 | 1669 | 0.68 |
| 2022/23 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RB | 3 | 141 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1433 | 1696 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RB | 23 | 1979 | 58% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1511 | 1588 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RB | 25 | 2093 | 61% | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1564 | 1688 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RB | 15 | 1159 | 34% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1570 | 1641 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RB | 19 | 1533 | 45% | 0 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.19 | 1554 | 1733 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RM | 35 | 3051 | 89% | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1545 | 1665 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RB | 33 | 2499 | 73% | 1 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 1519 | 1681 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RB | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 1 | 5 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1515 | 1678 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RB | 20 | 1561 | 46% | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 1535 | 1729 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 1484 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1284 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 177 | 0 | 0 | 1516 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1693 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 173 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 3 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1454 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 5 | 309 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 4 | 274 | 0 | 2 | 1518 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 7 | 549 | 0 | 1 | 1574 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 72 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1842 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 3 | 264 | 0 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 8 | 720 | 1 | 2 | 1606 |
| 2017/18 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1756 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1717 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 4 | 285 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 528 | 0 | 1 | 1729 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2015/16 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1754 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1626 |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 3 | 246 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlad Chiricheș Serie A · 2021 | 32 | €3.5M | €900k | fell |
| Marcel Schäfer Bundesliga · 2016 | 32 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Jakub Blaszczykowski Bundesliga · 2017 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Óscar de Marcos Laliga · 2021 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Ermin Bicakcic Bundesliga · 2019 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Patrick Ochs Bundesliga · 2014 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Christian Fuchs Bundesliga · 2015 | 29 | €3.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Johan Mojica Laliga · 2024 | 32 | €2.2M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2023 | Sporting | Real Betis | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Barcelona | Sporting | €1.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Arsenal | Barcelona | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Real Betis | Arsenal | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Arsenal | Real Betis | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Arsenal U21 | Arsenal | Unknown | €500k |
| 18 Feb 2014 | Watford | Arsenal U21 | Free / loan | €500k |
| 22 Nov 2013 | Arsenal U21 | Watford | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Arsenal U18 | Arsenal U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Barça U16 | Arsenal U18 | €500k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.