Rafael Barbosa

The model rates Rafael Barbosa's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.49x the positional average in the league (648 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

648 (21% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.42

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.60

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

6 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.58 (rank 9)

Team strength (Elo)

1182

Opponent strength

1292

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

insufficient

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€171k – €315k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -52% to +0%).

• ▲Small sample: 648 league minutes last season.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

58 (MID)

Relative output kept

72%–151%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

78%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.