
Philipp Lienhart
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Philipp Lienhart's performance-implied value at EUR 4.3M-8.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-11.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-6.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.5M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1301 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1551
- Opponent strength
- 1500
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €6.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 48 pts; relative output up 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -67% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1301 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 20 | 1301 | 43% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1500 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2771 | 91% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1506 | 1505 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 15 | 1265 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1517 | 1481 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2498 | 82% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1519 | 1561 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2871 | 94% | 5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 1531 | 1543 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 34 | 2993 | 98% | 4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1528 | 1492 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 22 | 1816 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1554 | 1477 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 14 | 610 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1489 | 1413 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 11 | 867 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1568 | 1415 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 10 | 788 | 1 | 0 | 1496 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Austria | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 195 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 5 | 415 | 0 | 1 | 1434 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 6 | 505 | 0 | 0 | 1453 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 4 | 374 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 6 | 537 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 131 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 102 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Freiburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1375 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javi Galán Laliga · 2024 | 30 | €7.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Léo Dubois Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Danilo Serie A · 2022 | 31 | €13.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Robin Knoche Bundesliga · 2020 | 28 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Chris Smalling Serie A · 2021 | 32 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Glen Johnson Premier League · 2015 | 31 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| David López Laliga · 2019 | 30 | €9.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Cristian Ansaldi Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2018 | Real Madrid | Freiburg | €2.0M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Freiburg | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 5 Jul 2017 | Real Madrid | Freiburg | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | RM Castilla | Real Madrid | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Rapid Wien II | RM Castilla | €800k | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Real Madrid U19 | Rapid Wien II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Aug 2014 | Rapid Wien II | Real Madrid U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | AKA Rapid U18 | Rapid Wien II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | AKA Rapid U16 | AKA Rapid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | AKA Rapid U15 | AKA Rapid U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Rapid Youth | AKA Rapid U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 21 Nov 2007 | Lilienfeld J. | Rapid Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.