Philipp Lienhart

30 yrs · Centre-back · Austria
SC Freiburg · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 189 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€10.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€3.9M – €11.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€4.3M – €8.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.7M – €6.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€7.6M – €4.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.9M – €11.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€4.3M – €8.6M
Projected value (24 months)€2.7M – €6.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€10.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Philipp Lienhart's performance-implied value at EUR 4.3M-8.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-11.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-6.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 3

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh83.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €7.5M vs market €10.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-60% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1301 (43% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
84 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1551
Opponent strength
1500
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.7M – €6.5M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 48 pts; relative output up 30% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -67% to -27%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1301 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SC FreiburgBundesligaCB20130143%100.070.05150015510.94
2024/25SC FreiburgBundesligaCB32277191%100.030.04150615050.94
2023/24SC FreiburgBundesligaCB15126541%100.070.06151714811.01
2022/23SC FreiburgBundesligaCB29249882%100.040.03151915611.04
2021/22SC FreiburgBundesligaCB32287194%500.160.12153115431.05
2020/21SC FreiburgBundesligaCB34299398%400.120.11152814921.06
2019/20SC FreiburgBundesligaCB22181659%010.050.06155414771.06
2018/19SC FreiburgBundesligaCB1461020%000.000.05148914131.05
2017/18SC FreiburgBundesligaCB1186728%000.000.04156814151.04

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg10788101496
2025/26Dfb PokalSC Freiburg330000—
2025/26World CupAustria218000—
2024/25Dfb PokalSC Freiburg319500—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg5415011434
2023/24Dfb PokalSC Freiburg213500—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg6505001453
2022/23Dfb PokalSC Freiburg437400—
2021/22Dfb PokalSC Freiburg653700—
2020/21Dfb PokalSC Freiburg218000—
2019/20Dfb PokalSC Freiburg213100—
2018/19Dfb PokalSC Freiburg210210—
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingSC Freiburg2180001375
2017/18Dfb PokalSC Freiburg19000—
2015/16Copa Del ReyReal Madrid11200—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Javi Galán
Laliga · 2024
30€7.0M€1.8Mfell
Léo Dubois
Ligue 1 · 2022
28€10.0M€3.5Mfell
Danilo
Serie A · 2022
31€13.0M€10.0Mfell
Robin Knoche
Bundesliga · 2020
28€6.5M€5.0Mfell
Chris Smalling
Serie A · 2021
32€12.0M€8.0Mfell
Glen Johnson
Premier League · 2015
31€7.0M€5.0Mfell
David López
Laliga · 2019
30€9.0M€2.5Mfell
Cristian Ansaldi
Premier Liga · 2014
28€10.0M€6.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2018Real MadridFreiburg€2.0M€2.5M
30 Jun 2018FreiburgReal MadridFree / loan€2.5M
5 Jul 2017Real MadridFreiburgFree / loan€800k
1 Jul 2017RM CastillaReal MadridUnknown€800k
1 Jul 2015Rapid Wien IIRM Castilla€800kData unavailable
30 Jun 2015Real Madrid U19Rapid Wien IIFree / loanData unavailable
30 Aug 2014Rapid Wien IIReal Madrid U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013AKA Rapid U18Rapid Wien IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012AKA Rapid U16AKA Rapid U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011AKA Rapid U15AKA Rapid U16UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Rapid YouthAKA Rapid U15UnknownData unavailable
21 Nov 2007Lilienfeld J.Rapid YouthUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.