Morten Bjørlo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Morten Bjørlo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (1326 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €272k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1326 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1230
- Opponent strength
- 1280
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €299k – €735k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -59% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1326 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CM | 28 | 1326 | 43% | 0 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 1280 | 1230 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CM | 9 | 291 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 1330 | 1228 | 0.39 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Durmaz Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Sebastián Rusculleda Super League 1 · 2016 | 31 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Dmitriy Stotskiy Premier Liga · 2022 | 33 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Furkan Soyalp Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Bryan Dabo Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Andrea Bertolacci Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €2.2M | €1.3M | fell |
| Siem de Jong Eredivisie · 2021 | 32 | €700k | €275k | fell |
| Aleksey Eremenko Jr. Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 31 | €700k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2025 | Fredrikstad FK | Konyaspor | €650k | €700k |
| 8 Feb 2024 | Rosenborg BK | Fredrikstad FK | €170k | €500k |
| 31 Dec 2023 | HamKam | Rosenborg BK | Free / loan | €500k |
| 18 Aug 2023 | Rosenborg BK | HamKam | Free / loan | €500k |
| 8 Jan 2023 | HamKam | Rosenborg BK | Free / loan | €300k |
| 15 Jan 2021 | Strømmen | HamKam | Free / loan | €200k |
| 15 Jan 2020 | Egersund | Strømmen | Free / loan | €50k |
| 25 Mar 2019 | Nest-Sotra FK | Egersund | Free / loan | €50k |
| 12 Jan 2018 | Egersund | Nest-Sotra FK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 Jan 2016 | Sola FK | Egersund | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 10 Feb 2015 | Jørpeland | Sola FK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Staal II | Jørpeland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Staal Jugend | Staal II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.