Nélson Semedo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nélson Semedo's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-5.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -70% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1943 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1477
- Opponent strength
- 1279
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; changed club; league level down (-321 Elo); role change RM -> RB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -76% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | RB | 26 | 1943 | 63% | 1 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 1279 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | RM | 34 | 2896 | 85% | 0 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 1565 | 1501 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | RM | 36 | 3093 | 90% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 1575 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | RB | 36 | 2635 | 77% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 1575 | 1497 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | RB | 25 | 2137 | 62% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1565 | 1508 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | RB | 34 | 2988 | 87% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1552 | 1516 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RB | 32 | 2094 | 61% | 1 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 1538 | 1813 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RB | 26 | 1597 | 47% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 1539 | 1873 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RB | 24 | 1499 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1528 | 1851 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RB | 31 | 2781 | 91% | 1 | 8 | 0.29 | 0.13 | 1347 | 1653 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RB | 12 | 906 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 1342 | 1712 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 9 | 731 | 0 | 0 | 1507 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 4 | 229 | 0 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 2 | 63 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 155 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 391 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 7 | 630 | 0 | 1 | 1627 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 9 | 646 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 10 | 554 | 0 | 0 | 1723 |
| 2018/19 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1578 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 7 | 625 | 0 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 4 | 333 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1962 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 8 | 720 | 1 | 0 | 1654 |
| 2016/17 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1440 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1621 |
| 2015/16 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1593 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Hugo Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €6.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Connor Goldson Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 31 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Sverrir Ingi Ingason Superliga · 2024 | 31 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Maximiliano Pereira Liga Portugal · 2017 | 33 | €4.0M | €500k | fell |
| Fernando Varela Super League 1 · 2017 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Ivan Ordets Premier Liga · 2022 | 30 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Romain Saïss Super Lig · 2023 | 33 | €5.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Papa Gueye Premier Liga · 2015 | 31 | €4.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2025 | Wolves | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 23 Sept 2020 | Barcelona | Wolves | €32.0M | €40.0M |
| 14 Jul 2017 | Benfica | Barcelona | €35.7M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Benfica B | Benfica | Unknown | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2013 | CD Fátima | Benfica B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 9 Aug 2012 | Benfica B | CD Fátima | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sintrense | Benfica B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Sintrense Y19 | Sintrense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Sintrense Y17 | Sintrense Y19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.