Atakan Karazor
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Atakan Karazor's performance-implied value at EUR 5.3M-17.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-8.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-5.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.47x the positional average in the league (1891 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €6.0M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1891 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1567
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €5.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; relative output down 64% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -68% to -49%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | DM | 28 | 1891 | 62% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1491 | 1567 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | DM | 32 | 2626 | 86% | 2 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 1504 | 1531 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | DM | 33 | 2630 | 86% | 0 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1522 | 1637 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | DM | 29 | 1962 | 64% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1556 | 1429 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | DM | 24 | 1905 | 62% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1548 | 1425 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CB | 19 | 1031 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1515 | 1462 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | VfB Stuttgart | 10 | 715 | 0 | 0 | 1477 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 510 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1760 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 555 | 0 | 0 | 1676 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 474 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1761 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 356 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Kulik Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €6.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Remo Freuler Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €20.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Álvaro González Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €7.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Antonín Barák Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €10.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Marco Parolo Serie A · 2016 | 31 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Joan Jordán Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €9.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Julian Baumgartlinger Bundesliga · 2017 | 29 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Bastian Oczipka Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €7.0M | €3.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Holstein Kiel | Stuttgart | €800k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | B. Dortmund II | Holstein Kiel | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | VfL Bochum U19 | B. Dortmund II | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | VfL Bochum U17 | VfL Bochum U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | SW Essen U17 | VfL Bochum U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | SW Essen Yth. | SW Essen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Essener SC Jgd. | SW Essen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.