Grischa Prömel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Grischa Prömel's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-4.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-3.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-2.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.41x the positional average in the league (1746 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1746 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.46
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1508
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €2.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -62% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1746 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CM | 33 | 1746 | 57% | 7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.31 | 1487 | 1508 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | DM | 2 | 175 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1408 | 1415 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CM | 28 | 2147 | 70% | 4 | 5 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 1510 | 1471 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CM | 18 | 1458 | 48% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 1527 | 1444 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | AM | 29 | 2428 | 79% | 8 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 1513 | 1568 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 1827 | 60% | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 1539 | 1508 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CM | 16 | 919 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1527 | 1434 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 71 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 140 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 4 | 390 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 191 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 3 | 189 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blerim Dzemaili Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Niko Gießelmann Bundesliga · 2022 | 31 | €2.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Tolgay Arslan Serie A · 2021 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Emanuele Giaccherini Serie A · 2016 | 31 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Vladimír Darida Bundesliga · 2020 | 30 | €4.5M | €2.2M | fell |
| Timothy Chandler Bundesliga · 2020 | 30 | €2.4M | €1.2M | fell |
| Nuri Sahin Bundesliga · 2018 | 30 | €4.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Rubén Rochina Laliga · 2019 | 28 | €4.0M | €2.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Hoffenheim | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Union Berlin | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Karlsruher SC | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €600k |
| 11 Aug 2015 | Hoffenheim | Karlsruher SC | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Hoffenheim II | Hoffenheim | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Hoffenheim U19 | Hoffenheim II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | St. Kickers U19 | Hoffenheim U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | St. Kickers U17 | St. Kickers U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | S. Kickers Yth. | St. Kickers U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | RSK Essl. Yth. | S. Kickers Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.