Antonio Sanabria

30 yrs · Striker · Paraguay
US Cremonese · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.8M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€660k – €2.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.1M – €3.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€660k – €1.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€853k – €3.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€660k – €2.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.1M – €3.6M
Projected value (24 months)€660k – €1.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Antonio Sanabria's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (940 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 16

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage49.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.3M vs market €1.8M
Expected appreciationVery low-49% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
940 (28% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.19
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.53
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
49 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1299
Opponent strength
1500
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€660k – €1.5M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-159 Elo); relative output up 60% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -63% to -25%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 940 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26US CremoneseSerie AST2594027%110.190.53150012990.93
2024/25Torino FCSerie AST26131939%210.200.35149714580.99
2023/24Torino FCSerie AST35213362%500.210.33146815100.98
2022/23Torino FCSerie AST33244371%1240.590.64147714680.94
2021/22Torino FCSerie AST29181253%650.550.59145814230.89
2020/21Torino FCSerie AST1498329%510.550.60147913730.90
2020/21Real Betis BalompiéLaligaST1693527%300.290.50158315571.10
2019/20Genoa CFCSerie AST24139241%630.580.71144613240.82
2018/19Real Betis BalompiéLaligaST1580824%200.220.35151315101.14
2018/19Genoa CFCSerie AST1576422%300.350.50142813220.78
2017/18Real Betis BalompiéLaligaST1784725%800.850.78153415221.11
2016/17Real Betis BalompiéLaligaST22149844%410.300.45155514191.11
2015/16Sporting GijónLaligaST29225566%1110.480.55156514651.17
2014/15Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie AST2331%000.000.28134815740.93
2013/14US SassuoloSerie AST2351%000.000.69143113340.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26World CupParaguay16200—
2024/25Italy CupTorino FC16500—
2023/24Italy CupTorino FC216700—
2022/23Italy CupTorino FC323700—
2020/21Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié421800—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueReal Betis Balompié5343221489
2018/19Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié323220—
2016/17Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié215411—
2015/16Copa Del ReySporting Gijón11700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Luton Shelton
Premier Liga · 2014
29€1.9M€1.4Mfell
Opa Nguette
Ligue 1 · 2022
28€2.0M€1.5Mfell
Kenan Karaman
Bundesliga · 2023
29€1.4M€1.4Mflat
Anthony Le Tallec
Ligue 1 · 2014
30€1.8M€700kfell
Andrey Galabinov
Serie A · 2018
30€1.2M€300kfell
Sory Kaba
Laliga · 2024
29€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Nenê
Serie A · 2014
31€1.2M€350kfell
Youcef Belaïli
Ligue 1 · 2022
30€2.0M€1.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
21 Aug 2025TorinoCremonese€2.5M€2.8M
31 Jan 2021Real BetisTorino€6.5M€6.5M
31 Aug 2020GenoaReal BetisFree / loan€6.5M
26 Jan 2019Real BetisGenoaFree / loan€7.0M
15 Jul 2016RomaReal Betis€7.5M€7.5M
30 Jun 2016Sporting GijónRomaFree / loan€7.5M
11 Aug 2015RomaSporting GijónFree / loan€3.5M
1 Jul 2014SassuoloRoma€6.2M€4.5M
29 Jan 2014Barcelona BSassuolo€5.7M€600k
1 Jul 2013Barça U19Barcelona BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Barça U16Barça U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Barça YouthBarça U16UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.