Timo Hübers
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Timo Hübers's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 47.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €574k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 671 (22% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1504
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €540k – €1.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -43% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 671 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | CB | 8 | 671 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1504 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | CB | 31 | 2779 | 91% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1513 | 1382 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2558 | 84% | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1525 | 1476 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | CB | 20 | 1742 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1521 | 1500 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Hannover 96 | Bundesliga | CB | 5 | 450 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 1593 | 1397 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 191 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Genevois Ligue 1 · 2017 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Edoardo Goldaniga Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
| Lucas Orbán Serie A · 2017 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.9M | flat |
| Cesare Bovo Serie A · 2013 | 30 | €1.9M | €1.0M | fell |
| Dominique Heintz Bundesliga · 2024 | 31 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Dominic Maroh Bundesliga · 2018 | 31 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Andrea Masiello Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €800k | €2.5M | rose |
| Gabriel Silva Ligue 1 · 2022 | 31 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Hannover 96 | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | 1.FC Köln II | Hannover 96 | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Hannover 96 U19 | 1.FC Köln II | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Hannover 96 U17 | Hannover 96 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Hannover Yth. | Hannover 96 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Diekholzen Yth. | Hannover Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.