Marco Rente
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marco Rente's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €396k vs market €1.3M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2279 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1248
- Opponent strength
- 1312
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €530k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: role change CB -> RB; relative output up 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -44% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | RB | 29 | 2279 | 74% | 3 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 1312 | 1248 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | CB | 30 | 2593 | 85% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1317 | 1197 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CB | 27 | 2313 | 76% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1344 | 1250 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CB | 25 | 1759 | 57% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1381 | 1303 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 2 | 151 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitriy Tikhiy Premier Liga · 2022 | 30 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Themistoklis Tzimopoulos Super League 1 · 2015 | 30 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Erdoğan Yeşilyurt Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
| Manolis Bertos Super League 1 · 2017 | 28 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Mortadha Ben Ouanes Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Ari Freyr Skúlason Superliga · 2015 | 28 | €700k | €900k | rose |
| Rúben Fernandes Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 30 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Kirill Gotsuk Premier Liga · 2022 | 30 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Heracles Almelo | FC Groningen | Unknown | €600k |
| 3 Aug 2020 | B. Dortmund II | Heracles Almelo | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | TuS Erndtebrück | B. Dortmund II | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Spfr. Siegen | TuS Erndtebrück | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | SF Siegen U19 | Spfr. Siegen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | SF Siegen U17 | SF Siegen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.