Mathias Greve
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mathias Greve's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.49x the positional average in the league (1644 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €387k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1644 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1278
- Opponent strength
- 1257
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €301k – €583k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; league level up (+45 Elo); role change AM -> LW; relative output down 57% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -43% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1644 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Randers FC | Superliga | LW | 19 | 1644 | 83% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 1257 | 1278 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Randers FC | Superliga | AM | 14 | 1127 | 57% | 3 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 1329 | 1276 | 0.38 |
| 2024/25 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | RW | 4 | 123 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.30 | 1276 | 1342 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CM | 16 | 989 | 50% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 1254 | 1417 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CM | 21 | 1651 | 83% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 1282 | 1329 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CM | 15 | 596 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 1276 | 1362 | 0.45 |
| 2021/22 | Randers FC | Superliga | LW | 3 | 249 | 13% | 1 | 2 | 1.08 | 0.47 | 1254 | 1290 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Randers FC | Superliga | LW | 21 | 1772 | 89% | 4 | 5 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 1286 | 1278 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | CM | 13 | 392 | 17% | 1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.29 | 1318 | 1264 | 0.41 |
| 2019/20 | Randers FC | Superliga | LW | 6 | 383 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1299 | 1242 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | CM | 14 | 574 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1298 | 1307 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | RW | 25 | 1623 | 69% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.24 | 1274 | 1251 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | CM | 20 | 789 | 34% | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 1274 | 1272 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | CM | 26 | 1246 | 42% | 3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.31 | 1299 | 1306 | 0.53 |
| 2014/15 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | CM | 17 | 734 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 1389 | 1271 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 2 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 1204 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 3 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 4 | 236 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Bröndby IF | 5 | 195 | 0 | 0 | 1560 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 8 | 685 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 2 | 93 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 5 | 388 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 3 | 191 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 2 | 180 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2015/16 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammet Demir Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €1.4M | €175k | fell |
| Erdoğan Yeşilyurt Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €1.8M | €800k | fell |
| Lasse Fosgaard Superliga · 2017 | 31 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Anastasios Karamanos Super League 1 · 2020 | 30 | €325k | €200k | fell |
| Scott Vernon Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 30 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Andrey Egorychev Premier Liga · 2022 | 29 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Ilnur Alshin Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Gregory Nelson Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €900k | €900k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | Bröndby IF | Randers FC | €400k | €800k |
| 4 Aug 2021 | Randers FC | Bröndby IF | €1.0M | €800k |
| 27 Jan 2020 | Odense BK | Randers FC | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Odense BK U19 | Odense BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Odense BK Youth | Odense BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.