Liam Gordon
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Liam Gordon's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 19.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €138k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 803 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1207
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €109k – €275k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 51 pts; team strength up (+124 Elo); relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -50% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 803 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 13 | 803 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1207 | 1245 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 27 | 2317 | 78% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1239 | 1121 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 27 | 2200 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1261 | 1105 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 27 | 2188 | 74% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1288 | 1138 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 26 | 2311 | 78% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1325 | 1226 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 33 | 2886 | 97% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1318 | 1307 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 16 | 1392 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1290 | 1260 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 8 | 539 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 1282 | 1214 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 5 | 345 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1244 | 1255 | 0.47 |
| 2015/16 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 1 | 83 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1303 | 1332 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 2 | 138 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | St. Johnstone FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1389 |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | St. Johnstone FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolaos Marinakis Super League 1 · 2023 | 30 | €350k | €175k | fell |
| Kyriakos Kivrakidis Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Hayrullah Bilazer Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €275k | €275k | flat |
| Nikolaos Georgiadis Super League 1 · 2015 | 32 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Maksym Bilyi Premier Liga · 2023 | 33 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Christos Gromitsaris Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Danny Seaborne Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 30 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Ugur Demirok Super Lig · 2020 | 32 | €325k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | St. Johnstone | Motherwell FC | Free / loan | €500k |
| 21 May 2017 | Peterhead | St. Johnstone | Free / loan | €50k |
| 5 Jan 2017 | St. Johnstone | Peterhead | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | St. Johnstone FC U20 | St. Johnstone | Unknown | €50k |
| 3 Jan 2016 | Elgin City | St. Johnstone FC U20 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 16 Jul 2015 | St. Johnstone FC U20 | Elgin City | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Hearts FC U20 | St. Johnstone FC U20 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 10 May 2015 | Arbroath | Hearts FC U20 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 29 Jan 2015 | Hearts FC U20 | Arbroath | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Aug 2012 | Raith Rovers U17 | Hearts FC U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.