Florent Hadergjonaj

32 yrs · Right midfielder (also RB) · Kosovo
Alanyaspor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 182 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.8M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€426k – €1.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.2M – €2.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€470k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€183k – €2.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€426k – €1.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.2M – €2.4M
Projected value (24 months)€470k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Florent Hadergjonaj's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-2.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.71x the positional average in the league (2212 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 32

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average55th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €568k vs market €1.8M
Expected appreciationVery low-57% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2212 (72% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.65
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.38
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
55 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1229
Opponent strength
1261
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€470k – €1.1M

Trajectory drivers: role change RB -> RM.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -68% to -29%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
35 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–144%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AlanyasporSuper LigRM29221272%6100.650.38126112290.40
2024/25AlanyasporSuper LigRB33281587%450.290.20129812470.39
2023/24AlanyasporSuper LigRB31231968%230.190.19128413130.45
2022/23KasimpasaSuper LigRB25202162%310.180.17128212950.50
2021/22KasimpasaSuper LigRB33295786%230.150.15126013120.42
2020/21KasimpasaSuper LigRB36318588%220.110.13128212080.37
2019/20KasimpasaSuper LigRB13114237%000.000.06131512730.45
2018/19Huddersfield TownPremier LeagueRB24184154%000.000.06152613211.22
2017/18Huddersfield TownPremier LeagueRB23167149%010.050.13155814091.15
2016/17FC Ingolstadt 04BundesligaRB25222373%120.120.17155014011.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2019/20Fa CupHuddersfield Town19000—
2017/18Fa CupHuddersfield Town323401—
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingBSC Young Boys241001603

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alexandru Maxim
Super Lig · 2022
32€3.5M€1.0Mfell
Fayçal Fajr
Super Lig · 2022
34€1.8M€1.3Mfell
Fredy
Super Lig · 2022
32€1.5M€500kfell
Hakan Arslan
Super Lig · 2020
32€1.2M€850kfell
Grigoris Makos
Super League 1 · 2017
30€700k€450kfell
Thom Haye
Eredivisie · 2024
29€3.0M€900kfell
Valentin Eysseric
Super Lig · 2024
32€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Benjamin Stambouli
Super Lig · 2022
32€1.5M€700kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
7 Aug 2023KasimpasaAlanyasporFree / loan€3.1M
25 Sept 2020HuddersfieldKasimpasaUnknown€3.5M
3 Aug 2020KasimpasaHuddersfieldFree / loan€4.0M
31 Jan 2020HuddersfieldKasimpasaFree / loan€7.0M
1 Jul 2018FC IngolstadtHuddersfield€5.0M€5.0M
30 Jun 2018HuddersfieldFC IngolstadtFree / loan€5.0M
24 Aug 2017FC IngolstadtHuddersfieldFree / loan€2.5M
8 Aug 2016Young BoysFC Ingolstadt€2.0M€3.0M
1 Jan 2014BSC YB U21Young BoysUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2012BSC YB U18BSC YB U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Luzern U18BSC YB U18Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2011Luzern U17Luzern U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Aug 2010FC Thun YouthLuzern U17Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Florent Hadergjonaj · MoneyballAI