Juan Musso

32 yrs · Goalkeeper · Argentina
Atlético de Madrid · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 193 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€3.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€1.2M – €3.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.1M – €3.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€946k – €2.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.8M – €2.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.2M – €3.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.1M – €3.6M
Projected value (24 months)€946k – €2.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Juan Musso's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.4M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average72.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.3M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-57% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
720 (21% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
72 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1619
Opponent strength
1533
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€946k – €2.4M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -80% to -33%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 720 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Atlético de MadridLaligaGK872021%000.000.00153316190.95
2024/25Atlético de MadridLaligaGK21805%000.000.01151016550.95
2024/25Atalanta BCSerie AGK1903%000.000.01135916790.99
2023/24Atalanta BCSerie AGK1199029%000.000.00147117090.98
2022/23Atalanta BCSerie AGK24207861%000.000.00145215560.94
2021/22Atalanta BCSerie AGK33293386%000.000.00146215660.89
2020/21Udinese CalcioSerie AGK35314892%000.000.00145513870.90
2019/20Udinese CalcioSerie AGK383420100%000.000.00143413880.82
2018/19Udinese CalcioSerie AGK29261076%000.000.00145613550.78

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid657000—
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid4360001739
2024/25Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid763000—
2024/25Uefa Super CupAtalanta BC190001881
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueAtalanta BC121080001633
2023/24Italy CupAtalanta BC19000—
2022/23Italy CupAtalanta BC218000—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC6540001641
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueAtalanta BC6540001619
2021/22Italy CupAtalanta BC218000—
2020/21Italy CupUdinese Calcio112000—
2019/20Italy CupUdinese Calcio19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mattia Perin
Serie A · 2023
31€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Marko Dmitrovic
Laliga · 2023
31€4.0M€800kfell
Brad Jones
Premier League · 2013
31€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Ciprian Tatarusanu
Serie A · 2015
29€3.0M€4.0Mrose
Pierluigi Gollini
Serie A · 2024
29€4.0M€800kfell
Marco Amelia
Serie A · 2013
31€1.8M€150kfell
Andrés Fernández
Laliga · 2019
33€1.5M€600kfell
Marco Sportiello
Serie A · 2023
31€1.5M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
10 Jun 2025AtalantaAtlético€3.0M€3.5M
9 Jun 2025AtléticoAtalantaFree / loan€3.5M
27 Aug 2024AtalantaAtléticoFree / loan€5.0M
2 Jul 2021UdineseAtalanta€20.5M€20.0M
11 Jul 2018Racing ClubUdinese€4.0M€1.0M
1 Jan 2014Racing Club IIRacing ClubUnknown€25k
1 Jul 2012V. Ramallo IIRacing Club IIFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.