Greg Kiltie
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Greg Kiltie's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.28x the positional average in the league (1894 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €82k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1894 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.52
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1104
- Opponent strength
- 1228
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €164k – €277k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 22 pts; changed club; team strength down (-73 Elo); relative output up 100% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -40% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 29 | 1894 | 64% | 4 | 4 | 0.38 | 0.52 | 1228 | 1104 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 26 | 1237 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.27 | 1231 | 1177 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 33 | 2589 | 87% | 4 | 6 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 1249 | 1192 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 30 | 1558 | 52% | 2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.39 | 1311 | 1217 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 21 | 1239 | 42% | 1 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.50 | 1312 | 1223 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 25 | 1740 | 59% | 5 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.57 | 1281 | 1222 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 10 | 305 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.43 | 1296 | 1291 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 3 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1267 | 1365 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 4 | 164 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1181 | 1330 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 11 | 616 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.40 | 1287 | 1200 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 35 | 2671 | 78% | 6 | 4 | 0.34 | 0.42 | 1276 | 1155 | 0.44 |
| 2014/15 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 8 | 277 | 8% | 2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.44 | 1252 | 1152 | 0.41 |
| 2013/14 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 5 | 293 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1346 | 1193 | 0.44 |
| 2012/13 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 1 | 22 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1250 | 1282 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 168 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 81 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 3 | 233 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 180 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1260 |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 4 | 104 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 3 | 255 | 0 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmytro Yusov Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Bogdan Boychuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Gboly Ariyibi Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €350k | €225k | fell |
| Bachana Arabuli Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Milos Deletic Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €400k | €700k | rose |
| Sebá Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Nikolaos Ioannidis Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Stevie May Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 31 | €450k | €125k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | St. Mirren | Kilmarnock FC | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Kilmarnock FC | St. Mirren | Free / loan | €450k |
| 9 Jan 2020 | Dunfermline A. | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €375k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Kilmarnock FC | Dunfermline A. | Free / loan | €375k |
| 5 May 2019 | Morton | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Kilmarnock FC | Morton | Free / loan | €300k |
| 3 Nov 2014 | Queen o. t. S. | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Oct 2014 | Kilmarnock FC | Queen o. t. S. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Kilmarnock FC U20 | Kilmarnock FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Kilmarnock FC U17 | Kilmarnock FC U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.