Calvin Miller

28 yrs · Left midfielder (also LB) · Scotland
Falkirk FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: left · Height: 182 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 May 2029
Market value
€600k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€157k – €558k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€442k – €968k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€276k – €702k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€115k – €811k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€157k – €558k
Model value (performance-implied)€442k – €968k
Projected value (24 months)€276k – €702k
Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Calvin Miller's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.67x the positional average in the league (2501 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 91

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average23.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €329k vs market €600k
Expected appreciationNeutral-9% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €600k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2501 (84% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.54
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.38
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
23 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1181
Opponent strength
1210
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€276k – €702k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -53% to +11%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
10 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–107%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
80%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Falkirk FCScottish PremiershipLM33250184%690.540.38121011810.31
2018/19Dundee FCScottish PremiershipLM16123141%130.290.41131610780.44
2017/18Celtic FCScottish PremiershipLB21696%000.000.04120915700.47
2016/17Celtic FCScottish PremiershipLB1632%000.000.05122016390.48

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupFalkirk FC437900—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Valeriy Kucherov
Premier Liga · 2023
30€500k€250kfell
Blair Spittal
Scottish Premiership · 2024
29€850k€600kfell
Aias Aosman
Super League 1 · 2022
28€1.0M€250kfell
Jim McAlister
Scottish Premiership · 2015
30€350k€350kflat
Rifet Kapic
Premier Liga · 2023
28€500k€800krose
Oleksandr Vasyliev
Premier Liga · 2024
30€400k€150kfell
Deybi Flores
Super League 1 · 2022
26€400k€600krose
Piris da Motta
Super Lig · 2021
27€1.2M€900kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026FalkirkHeart of Midl.Unknown€600k
1 Jul 2023MortonFalkirkFree / loan€200k
2 Jan 2023Without ClubMortonFree / loanData unavailable
13 Oct 2022ChesterfieldWithout ClubUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2021Harrogate TownChesterfieldFree / loanData unavailable
13 Jun 2021Notts CountyHarrogate TownFree / loanData unavailable
11 Jan 2021Harrogate TownNotts CountyFree / loanData unavailable
3 Oct 2020CelticHarrogate TownFree / loanData unavailable
12 May 2019Ayr UnitedCelticFree / loan€150k
31 Jan 2019CelticAyr UnitedFree / loan€150k
1 Jan 2019Dundee FCCelticFree / loanData unavailable
31 Aug 2018CelticDundee FCFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Celtic U20CelticUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Celtic U17Celtic U20UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.