
Calvin Miller
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Calvin Miller's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.67x the positional average in the league (2501 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €329k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2501 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1181
- Opponent strength
- 1210
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €276k – €702k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -53% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Falkirk FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 33 | 2501 | 84% | 6 | 9 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 1210 | 1181 | 0.31 |
| 2018/19 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 16 | 1231 | 41% | 1 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 1316 | 1078 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 2 | 169 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1209 | 1570 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 1 | 63 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1220 | 1639 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Falkirk FC | 4 | 379 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeriy Kucherov Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Blair Spittal Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €850k | €600k | fell |
| Aias Aosman Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Jim McAlister Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 30 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Rifet Kapic Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Oleksandr Vasyliev Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Deybi Flores Super League 1 · 2022 | 26 | €400k | €600k | rose |
| Piris da Motta Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €1.2M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Falkirk | Heart of Midl. | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Morton | Falkirk | Free / loan | €200k |
| 2 Jan 2023 | Without Club | Morton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 13 Oct 2022 | Chesterfield | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Harrogate Town | Chesterfield | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 13 Jun 2021 | Notts County | Harrogate Town | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Jan 2021 | Harrogate Town | Notts County | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Oct 2020 | Celtic | Harrogate Town | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 May 2019 | Ayr United | Celtic | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Celtic | Ayr United | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Dundee FC | Celtic | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Celtic | Dundee FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Celtic U20 | Celtic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Celtic U17 | Celtic U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.