Milan Gajic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Milan Gajic's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2391 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1436
- Opponent strength
- 1329
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; role change RM -> RB; relative output up 66% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -57% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | RB | 28 | 2391 | 89% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1329 | 1436 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | RM | 21 | 1257 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1336 | 1478 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | LM | 26 | 2232 | 83% | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 1334 | 1403 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | RM | 29 | 2342 | 87% | 0 | 5 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 1314 | 1447 | 0.53 |
| 2018/19 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | LB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1342 | 1408 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | RB | 4 | 360 | 11% | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.12 | 1383 | 1499 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | RB | 14 | 1136 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1464 | 1507 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | RB | 9 | 589 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 1409 | 1405 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 9 | 737 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 10 | 845 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 12 | 996 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1582 |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 13 | 984 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Girondins Bordeaux | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1302 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Girondins Bordeaux | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1425 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Girondins Bordeaux | 2 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 1337 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | FC Girondins Bordeaux | 1 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1569 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandru Epureanu Super Lig · 2017 | 31 | €3.8M | €1.8M | fell |
| Maciej Rybus Premier Liga · 2021 | 32 | €2.0M | €300k | fell |
| Igor Plastun Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 30 | €2.4M | €1.0M | fell |
| Michael Ngadeu Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 32 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Lasse Nielsen Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.3M | fell |
| Mark van der Maarel Eredivisie · 2018 | 29 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
| Rami Gershon Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.7M | flat |
| Wesley Hoedt Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €2.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Red Star | CSKA Moscow | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 4 Feb 2019 | G. Bordeaux | Red Star | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 22 Jul 2015 | OFK Beograd | G. Bordeaux | €1.0M | €800k |
| 27 Jan 2014 | OFK Beograd U19 | OFK Beograd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.