Maksym Tretyakov

30 yrs · Left winger (also LM, RM, RW, ST) · Ukraine
Kolos Kovalivka · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 174 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 May 2028
Market value
€250k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€64k – €237k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€229k – €406k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€108k – €265k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€8k – €342k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€64k – €237k
Model value (performance-implied)€229k – €406k
Projected value (24 months)€108k – €265k
Dashed line: current market value (€250k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Maksym Tretyakov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (931 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 85

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average3.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €137k vs market €250k
Expected appreciationLow-20% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
931 (35% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.10
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.35
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
4 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1108
Opponent strength
1156
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€108k – €265k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; changed club; team strength down (-78 Elo); role change LW -> RW; relative output down 28% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -70% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 931 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
18 (ATT)
Relative output kept
87%–104%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
94%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Obolon KyivPremier LigaRW1165824%100.140.35115610700.25
2025/26Kolos KovalivkaPremier LigaLW1027310%000.000.27111712000.25
2024/25Kolos KovalivkaPremier LigaLW23154357%240.350.48120611860.28
2023/24SC Dnipro-1Premier LigaST61857%100.490.47122713350.34
2022/23FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaLW22176065%740.560.53126612840.38
2021/22FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaLW17138385%520.460.43131912970.45
2020/21FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaLW22142261%320.320.39130912850.49
2019/20FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaLM21164083%510.330.26134713560.54
2017/18Chornomorets OdesaPremier LigaRM1997049%110.190.26136912570.62
2016/17Chornomorets OdesaPremier LigaRM20107637%030.250.37143412540.56
2015/16Metalist Kharkiv (- 2016)Premier LigaRW860726%010.150.37132612840.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupKolos Kovalivka16400—
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingSC Dnipro-1162001414
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingSC Dnipro-1111001526
2021/22Ukrainian CupFC Oleksandriya14500—
2020/21Ukrainian CupFC Oleksandriya321710—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueFC Oleksandriya6443001518
2019/20Ukrainian CupFC Oleksandriya111800—
2017/18Ukrainian CupChornomorets Odesa17600—
2016/17Ukrainian CupChornomorets Odesa17900—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Denys Bezborodko
Premier Liga · 2024
30€500k€150kfell
Sergiy Bolbat
Premier Liga · 2024
31€400k€400kflat
Oleg Vyshnevskyi
Premier Liga · 2024
29€200k€200kflat
Giovanni Sio
Super Lig · 2021
32€300k€300kflat
Stevie May
Scottish Premiership · 2024
32€250k€75kfell
Claudiu Bălan
Super League 1 · 2024
30€300k€300kflat
Sergiy Myakushko
Premier Liga · 2024
31€300k€75kfell
Rostyslav Rusyn
Premier Liga · 2024
29€300k€125kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
27 Feb 2026Kolos KovalivkaObolonFree / loan€400k
12 Jul 2024SC Dnipro-1Kolos Kovalivka€200k€500k
10 Jul 2023FC OleksandriyaSC Dnipro-1€400k€800k
19 Aug 2020Dunajska StredaFC Oleksandriya€100k€400k
31 Jul 2020FC OleksandriyaDunajska StredaFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2019Dunajska StredaFC OleksandriyaFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2018ChornomoretsDunajska Streda€100k€600k
13 Sept 2016Dnipro IIChornomoretsFree / loan€100k
30 Jun 2016Metalist KharkivDnipro IIFree / loanData unavailable
17 Feb 2016Dnipro IIMetalist KharkivFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2012Dnipro U17Dnipro IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.