Lucas Höler

The model rates Lucas Höler's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-7.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (2044 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2044 (67% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.26

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.35

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

82 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.94 (rank 3)

Team strength (Elo)

1551

Opponent strength

1500

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€836k – €2.1M

Trajectory drivers: role change ST -> SS.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -68% to -36%).

• ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
• ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.