Florian Sotoca
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Florian Sotoca's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.58x the positional average in the league (494 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 67th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €546k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 494 (16% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1569
- Opponent strength
- 1437
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €251k – €835k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 43 pts; team strength up (+85 Elo); relative output up 47% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -44% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 494 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | ST | 26 | 494 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 1437 | 1569 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | ST | 31 | 1799 | 59% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 1444 | 1484 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | SS | 32 | 2605 | 85% | 7 | 6 | 0.45 | 0.60 | 1464 | 1518 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | SS | 38 | 3065 | 90% | 7 | 10 | 0.50 | 0.55 | 1434 | 1626 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | ST | 35 | 2490 | 73% | 6 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 1423 | 1492 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | ST | 33 | 2421 | 71% | 8 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.52 | 1442 | 1371 | 0.75 |
| 2015/16 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | RW | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 1448 | 1431 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Lens | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1442 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RC Lens | 6 | 468 | 0 | 1 | 1654 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | RC Lens | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1512 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Serie A · 2024 | 37 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Amauri Serie A · 2015 | 35 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Papu Gómez Laliga · 2023 | 35 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| José Callejón Serie A · 2021 | 34 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Kevin Kuranyi Bundesliga · 2016 | 34 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Josip Ilicic Serie A · 2022 | 34 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Diego Milito Serie A · 2014 | 35 | €1.0M | €750k | fell |
| Vágner Love Super Lig · 2019 | 35 | €1.0M | €750k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Grenoble | Lens | €1.1M | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Montpellier | Grenoble | Free / loan | €150k |
| 23 Jan 2015 | AS Béziers | Montpellier | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Martigues | AS Béziers | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | FU Narbonne | FC Martigues | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | FU Narbonne U19 | FU Narbonne | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.