
José Sá
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates José Sá's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-3.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 88.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -62% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2070 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1425
- Opponent strength
- 1611
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €763k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; team strength down (-77 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -68% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | GK | 23 | 2070 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1611 | 1425 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | GK | 29 | 2610 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1577 | 1501 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | GK | 35 | 3038 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1581 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1565 | 1497 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3285 | 96% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1576 | 1508 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | GK | 23 | 2070 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1253 | 1531 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | GK | 26 | 2340 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1283 | 1591 | 0.46 |
| 2018/19 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | GK | 21 | 1890 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1278 | 1557 | 0.43 |
| 2017/18 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | GK | 14 | 1215 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1323 | 1650 | 0.64 |
| 2016/17 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1310 | 1545 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | GK | 5 | 372 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1392 | 1312 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | GK | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1457 | 1414 | 0.68 |
| 2013/14 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | GK | 8 | 720 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1508 | 1382 | 0.74 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1441 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 1672 |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex McCarthy Premier League · 2022 | 33 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Allan McGregor Premier League · 2014 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ben Foster Premier League · 2014 | 31 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Rubén Martínez Laliga · 2015 | 31 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
| Karl Darlow Premier League · 2021 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Miguel Ángel Moyá Laliga · 2014 | 30 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Manu Herrera Laliga · 2014 | 33 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Wayne Hennessey Premier League · 2018 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2021 | Olympiacos | Wolves | €8.0M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Porto | Olympiacos | €2.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Olympiacos | Porto | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Porto | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 25 Jan 2016 | Marítimo | Porto | €1.2M | €1.6M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Marítimo B | Marítimo | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Marítimo U19 | Marítimo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Benfica U19 | Marítimo U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2011 | Merelinense Y19 | Benfica U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Merelinense S17 | Merelinense Y19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Palmeiras U17 | Merelinense S17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Palmeiras U15 | Palmeiras U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.