José Sá

33 yrs · Goalkeeper · Portugal
Wolverhampton Wanderers · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 192 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€3.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.4M – €4.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.1M – €3.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€763k – €2.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.2M – €2.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.4M – €4.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.1M – €3.5M
Projected value (24 months)€763k – €2.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates José Sá's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-3.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh88.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.9M vs market €3.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-62% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €18.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2070 (61% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
88 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1425
Opponent strength
1611
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€763k – €2.5M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; team strength down (-77 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -68% to -19%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Wolverhampton WanderersPremier LeagueGK23207061%000.000.00161114251.30
2024/25Wolverhampton WanderersPremier LeagueGK29261076%000.000.00157715011.23
2023/24Wolverhampton WanderersPremier LeagueGK35303889%000.000.00158114671.14
2022/23Wolverhampton WanderersPremier LeagueGK36324095%000.000.00156514971.23
2021/22Wolverhampton WanderersPremier LeagueGK37328596%010.030.02157615081.17
2020/21Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1GK23207088%000.000.00125315310.39
2019/20Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1GK262340100%000.000.00128315910.46
2018/19Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1GK21189070%000.000.00127815570.43
2017/18FC PortoLiga PortugalGK14121540%000.000.00132316500.64
2016/17FC PortoLiga PortugalGK1903%000.000.00131015450.58
2015/16CS MarítimoLiga PortugalGK537212%000.000.01139213120.58
2014/15CS MarítimoLiga PortugalGK32709%000.000.01145714140.68
2013/14CS MarítimoLiga PortugalGK872027%000.000.01150813820.74

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Fa CupWolverhampton Wanderers548000—
2022/23Fa CupWolverhampton Wanderers19000—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios6540001656
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios4360001630
2020/21Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios327000—
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios2180001441
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios6540001674
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios6540001522
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios3300001672
2019/20Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios19000—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios7630001479
2018/19Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios327000—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueFC Porto5450001641

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alex McCarthy
Premier League · 2022
33€3.0M€500kfell
Allan McGregor
Premier League · 2014
32€2.0M€1.5Mfell
Ben Foster
Premier League · 2014
31€4.0M€4.0Mflat
Rubén Martínez
Laliga · 2015
31€2.0M€900kfell
Karl Darlow
Premier League · 2021
31€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Miguel Ángel Moyá
Laliga · 2014
30€3.0M€5.0Mrose
Manu Herrera
Laliga · 2014
33€1.5M€400kfell
Wayne Hennessey
Premier League · 2018
31€4.0M€2.4Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
15 Jul 2021OlympiacosWolves€8.0M€7.5M
1 Jul 2019PortoOlympiacos€2.5M€2.5M
30 Jun 2019OlympiacosPortoFree / loan€2.5M
31 Aug 2018PortoOlympiacosFree / loan€2.5M
25 Jan 2016MarítimoPorto€1.2M€1.6M
1 Jul 2013Marítimo BMarítimoUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2012Marítimo U19Marítimo BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Benfica U19Marítimo U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2011Merelinense Y19Benfica U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Merelinense S17Merelinense Y19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Palmeiras U17Merelinense S17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Palmeiras U15Palmeiras U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.