Alexander Djiku
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alexander Djiku's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1726 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1443
- Opponent strength
- 1319
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €922k – €2.2M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+84 Elo); relative output up 46% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -66% (IQR -74% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1726 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 20 | 1725 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1319 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1200 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 25 | 1623 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1268 | 1503 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 25 | 2024 | 59% | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 1291 | 1583 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2681 | 78% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1427 | 1441 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2697 | 79% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1440 | 1503 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 30 | 2556 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1428 | 1380 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 2062 | 85% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1425 | 1430 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | SM Caen | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2755 | 81% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1449 | 1286 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | SM Caen | Ligue 1 | CB | 28 | 2520 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1443 | 1299 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | SC Bastia | Ligue 1 | CB | 23 | 1804 | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1458 | 1365 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | SC Bastia | Ligue 1 | RB | 20 | 1514 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1419 | 1395 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | SC Bastia | Ligue 1 | RB | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1440 | 1402 | 0.80 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 7 | 446 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 8 | 646 | 1 | 0 | 1547 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 4 | 305 | 0 | 0 | 1438 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 4 | 232 | 0 | 0 | 1417 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1480 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benedikt Höwedes Premier Liga · 2020 | 32 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Ron Vlaar Eredivisie · 2017 | 32 | €2.5M | €750k | fell |
| Ivan Obradovic Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 30 | €2.0M | €300k | fell |
| Uros Spajic Eredivisie · 2021 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Lucas Lima Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Serdar Tasci Premier Liga · 2017 | 30 | €2.8M | €700k | fell |
| Dejan Lovren Premier Liga · 2022 | 33 | €4.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Luís Neto Premier Liga · 2019 | 31 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sept 2025 | Fenerbahçe | Spartak Moscow | €2.5M | €6.5M |
| 10 Jul 2023 | R. Strasbourg | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 5 Jul 2019 | SM Caen | R. Strasbourg | €4.5M | €8.0M |
| 11 Jul 2017 | SC Bastia | SM Caen | €2.0M | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | SC Bastia B | SC Bastia | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | AS Perpignan | SC Bastia B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Castelnau U19 | AS Perpignan | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.