Dejan Lovren
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dejan Lovren's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 65.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 37 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €246k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1387 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1461
- Opponent strength
- 1223
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €179k – €407k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts; team strength up (+83 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo); relative output up 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -57% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1387 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | CB | 16 | 1387 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1223 | 1461 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | CB | 7 | 600 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1297 | 1378 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 10 | 721 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1476 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 17 | 1462 | 43% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1419 | 1549 | 0.82 |
| 2022/23 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 15 | 1305 | 48% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 1289 | 1582 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 1223 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1341 | 1530 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 21 | 1845 | 68% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1351 | 1544 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 10 | 777 | 23% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 1570 | 1842 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 13 | 986 | 29% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 1546 | 1916 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 29 | 2125 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1551 | 1779 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 29 | 2554 | 75% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 1520 | 1666 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 24 | 1897 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1536 | 1639 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 26 | 2036 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1541 | 1589 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CB | 31 | 2788 | 82% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1547 | 1549 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 18 | 1560 | 46% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1442 | 1561 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1516 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | 1703 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 5 | 383 | 0 | 1 | 1611 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1462 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 3 | 233 | 1 | 0 | 1600 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 3 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 1759 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 12 | 1050 | 0 | 1 | 1670 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Liverpool FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1589 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Liverpool FC | 10 | 900 | 1 | 0 | 1619 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 4 | 281 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Liverpool FC | 2 | 147 | 0 | 0 | 1593 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1524 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Nababkin Premier Liga · 2023 | 37 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Vieirinha Super League 1 · 2022 | 36 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Simon Poulsen Superliga · 2018 | 34 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Dmytro Chygrynskyi Super League 1 · 2020 | 34 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Scott Boyd Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 33 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Quini Super League 1 · 2024 | 35 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Júnior Caiçara Super Lig · 2022 | 33 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Martin Albrechtsen Superliga · 2016 | 36 | €200k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sept 2024 | Lyon | PAOK | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 2 Jan 2023 | Zenit S-Pb | Lyon | €2.0M | €3.5M |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Liverpool | Zenit S-Pb | €12.0M | €12.0M |
| 27 Jul 2014 | Southampton | Liverpool | €25.3M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Lyon | Southampton | €10.0M | €7.0M |
| 13 Jan 2010 | Dinamo Zagreb | Lyon | €9.0M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2008 | Inter Zapresic | Dinamo Zagreb | Free / loan | €1.1M |
| 17 Jul 2006 | Dinamo Zagreb | Inter Zapresic | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2006 | Din. Zagreb U17 | Dinamo Zagreb | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.