Craig Halkett

31 yrs · Centre-back · Scotland
Heart of Midlothian FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 May 2028
Market value
€500k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€129k – €506k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€411k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€150k – €411k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€95k – €1.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€129k – €506k
Model value (performance-implied)€411k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€150k – €411k
Dashed line: current market value (€500k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Craig Halkett's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 59

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage36.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €299k vs market €500k
Expected appreciationVery low-35% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €650k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2292 (77% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.16
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
36 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1332
Opponent strength
1208
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€150k – €411k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 48 pts; team strength up (+95 Elo); relative output up 45% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -71% to +11%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
16 (DEF)
Relative output kept
90%–275%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
75%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipCB27229277%400.160.11120813320.31
2024/25Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipCB1387830%100.100.07123412370.34
2023/24Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipCB936812%000.000.04115913220.34
2022/23Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipCB637913%000.000.04125112500.40
2021/22Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipCB27232778%200.080.06132413550.50
2019/20Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipCB24209578%220.170.13130712310.52
2018/19Livingston FCScottish PremiershipCB32288097%600.190.14130712660.44

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupHeart of Midlothian FC16900—
2024/25Scottish Fa CupHeart of Midlothian FC216400—
2023/24Scottish Fa CupHeart of Midlothian FC211600—
2022/23Uefa Europa League QualifyingHeart of Midlothian FC17001431
2021/22Scottish Fa CupHeart of Midlothian FC435000—
2019/20Scottish Fa CupHeart of Midlothian FC551010—
2018/19Scottish Fa CupLivingston FC19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ognjen Vranjes
Super League 1 · 2022
33€800k€250kfell
Rasmus Thelander
Superliga · 2021
30€600k€400kfell
Guilherme
Super Lig · 2021
31€850k€1.2Mrose
Aaron Appindangoyé
Super Lig · 2024
32€800k€800kflat
Oliver Lund
Superliga · 2020
30€325k€400krose
Arghus
Super League 1 · 2019
31€350k€75kfell
Kristoffer Pallesen
Superliga · 2020
30€325k€350kflat
Khalifa Sankaré
Super League 1 · 2015
31€1.3M€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2019Livingston FCHeart of Midl.Free / loan€500k
13 Jan 2016RangersLivingston FCFree / loanData unavailable
27 Nov 2015Berwick RangersRangersFree / loanData unavailable
30 Oct 2015RangersBerwick RangersFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Rangers U20RangersUnknownData unavailable
31 Dec 2014Clyde FCRangers U20Free / loanData unavailable
1 Sept 2014Rangers U20Clyde FCFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Rangers FC U17Rangers U20UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Craig Halkett · MoneyballAI