
Craig Halkett
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Craig Halkett's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €299k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2292 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1332
- Opponent strength
- 1208
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €150k – €411k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 48 pts; team strength up (+95 Elo); relative output up 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -71% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 27 | 2292 | 77% | 4 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1208 | 1332 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 13 | 878 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1234 | 1237 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 9 | 368 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1159 | 1322 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 6 | 379 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1251 | 1250 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 27 | 2327 | 78% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1324 | 1355 | 0.50 |
| 2019/20 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 24 | 2095 | 78% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1307 | 1231 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | Livingston FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 32 | 2880 | 97% | 6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 1307 | 1266 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 2 | 164 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 2 | 116 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Heart of Midlothian FC | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1431 |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 4 | 350 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 5 | 510 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Livingston FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ognjen Vranjes Super League 1 · 2022 | 33 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Rasmus Thelander Superliga · 2021 | 30 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Guilherme Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €850k | €1.2M | rose |
| Aaron Appindangoyé Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Oliver Lund Superliga · 2020 | 30 | €325k | €400k | rose |
| Arghus Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €350k | €75k | fell |
| Kristoffer Pallesen Superliga · 2020 | 30 | €325k | €350k | flat |
| Khalifa Sankaré Super League 1 · 2015 | 31 | €1.3M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Livingston FC | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €500k |
| 13 Jan 2016 | Rangers | Livingston FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 27 Nov 2015 | Berwick Rangers | Rangers | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Oct 2015 | Rangers | Berwick Rangers | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Rangers U20 | Rangers | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2014 | Clyde FC | Rangers U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2014 | Rangers U20 | Clyde FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Rangers FC U17 | Rangers U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.