
Aleksandar Jovanovic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksandar Jovanovic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 15.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €173k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1575 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1188
- Opponent strength
- 1272
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €112k – €473k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -66% to -20%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1575 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kocaelispor | Super Lig | GK | 18 | 1575 | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1272 | 1188 | 0.40 |
| 2019/20 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | GK | 6 | 540 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1297 | 1317 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | SD Huesca | Laliga | GK | 12 | 1080 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1538 | 1410 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | GK | 7 | 630 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1349 | 1221 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | GK | 21 | 1890 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1287 | 1231 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | GK | 24 | 2119 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1310 | 1221 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Partizan Belgrade | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1376 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FK Partizan Belgrade | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1463 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Partizan Belgrade | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1456 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marian Kello Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 32 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Huanderson Super League 1 · 2016 | 33 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Georgios Kantimiris Super League 1 · 2016 | 34 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Ertaç Özbir Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €500k | €750k | rose |
| Nikolaos Papadopoulos Super League 1 · 2022 | 32 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Boris Kleyman Super League 1 · 2022 | 32 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Antonio Reguero Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 33 | €250k | €50k | fell |
| Ramazan Köse Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €200k | €25k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Partizan | Kocaelispor | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Apol. Limassol | Partizan | €450k | €800k |
| 29 Sept 2020 | SD Huesca | Apol. Limassol | Free / loan | €550k |
| 21 Jul 2020 | Dep. La Coruña | SD Huesca | Free / loan | €550k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | SD Huesca | Dep. La Coruña | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Dec 2019 | Aarhus GF | SD Huesca | Free / loan | €700k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | SD Huesca | Aarhus GF | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 28 Aug 2018 | Aarhus GF | SD Huesca | €1.0M | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Radnicki Nis | Aarhus GF | €215k | €600k |
| 22 Jul 2015 | Donji Srem | Radnicki Nis | Free / loan | €200k |
| 10 Feb 2015 | Rad | Donji Srem | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2012 | FK Palic Koming | Rad | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 17 Aug 2011 | Rad | FK Palic Koming | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Jan 2011 | FK Palilulac | Rad | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Aug 2010 | Rad U19 | FK Palilulac | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 19 Aug 2009 | Radn. Nis U17 | Rad U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Radnicki U15 | Radn. Nis U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Radnicki Youth | Radnicki U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.