Aleksandar Jovanovic

33 yrs · Goalkeeper · Serbia
Kocaelispor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€500k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€129k – €416k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€142k – €397k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€112k – €473k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€274k – €268k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€129k – €416k
Model value (performance-implied)€142k – €397k
Projected value (24 months)€112k – €473k
Dashed line: current market value (€500k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Aleksandar Jovanovic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceBelow average15.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.6 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €173k vs market €500k
Expected appreciationVery low-47% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1575 (52% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
15 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1188
Opponent strength
1272
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€112k – €473k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -66% to -20%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1575 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
138 (all positions)
Relative output kept
76%–145%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
59%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KocaelisporSuper LigGK18157551%000.000.00127211880.40
2019/20Aarhus GFSuperligaGK654023%000.000.00129713170.41
2018/19SD HuescaLaligaGK12108032%000.000.00153814101.14
2018/19Aarhus GFSuperligaGK763027%000.000.00134912210.44
2017/18Aarhus GFSuperligaGK21189081%000.000.00128712310.47
2016/17Aarhus GFSuperligaGK24211991%000.000.00131012210.48

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingFK Partizan Belgrade2210001376
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingFK Partizan Belgrade2180001463
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingFK Partizan Belgrade2180001456
2019/20Oddset PokalenAarhus GF112000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Marian Kello
Scottish Premiership · 2014
32€450k€350kfell
Huanderson
Super League 1 · 2016
33€500k€300kfell
Georgios Kantimiris
Super League 1 · 2016
34€250k€100kfell
Ertaç Özbir
Super Lig · 2021
32€500k€750krose
Nikolaos Papadopoulos
Super League 1 · 2022
32€350k€250kfell
Boris Kleyman
Super League 1 · 2022
32€350k€300kflat
Antonio Reguero
Scottish Premiership · 2015
33€250k€50kfell
Ramazan Köse
Super Lig · 2021
33€200k€25kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025PartizanKocaelisporUnknown€2.0M
1 Jul 2023Apol. LimassolPartizan€450k€800k
29 Sept 2020SD HuescaApol. LimassolFree / loan€550k
21 Jul 2020Dep. La CoruñaSD HuescaFree / loan€550k
31 Jan 2020SD HuescaDep. La CoruñaFree / loan€700k
31 Dec 2019Aarhus GFSD HuescaFree / loan€700k
2 Sept 2019SD HuescaAarhus GFFree / loan€1.0M
28 Aug 2018Aarhus GFSD Huesca€1.0M€500k
1 Jul 2016Radnicki NisAarhus GF€215k€600k
22 Jul 2015Donji SremRadnicki NisFree / loan€200k
10 Feb 2015RadDonji SremFree / loan€250k
30 Jun 2012FK Palic KomingRadFree / loanData unavailable
17 Aug 2011RadFK Palic KomingFree / loanData unavailable
16 Jan 2011FK PalilulacRadFree / loanData unavailable
11 Aug 2010Rad U19FK PalilulacFree / loanData unavailable
19 Aug 2009Radn. Nis U17Rad U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Radnicki U15Radn. Nis U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2006Radnicki YouthRadnicki U15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.