
Domingos Duarte
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Domingos Duarte's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-6.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €541k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2929 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1446
- Opponent strength
- 1499
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €355k – €736k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 31 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -53% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CB | 34 | 2929 | 86% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1499 | 1446 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CB | 22 | 1861 | 54% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1546 | 1395 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CB | 15 | 908 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1535 | 1415 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CB | 31 | 2657 | 78% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1519 | 1434 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Granada CF | Laliga | CB | 21 | 1689 | 49% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1523 | 1415 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Granada CF | Laliga | CB | 28 | 2275 | 67% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1570 | 1466 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Granada CF | Laliga | CB | 36 | 3086 | 90% | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1552 | 1512 | 1.16 |
| 2017/18 | GD Chaves | Liga Portugal | CB | 30 | 2677 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1348 | 1332 | 0.64 |
| 2016/17 | CF Os Belenenses | Liga Portugal | CB | 28 | 2500 | 82% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1353 | 1265 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 5 | 483 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Granada CF | 9 | 685 | 0 | 0 | 1538 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Granada CF | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1464 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Granada CF | 2 | 125 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Granada CF | 3 | 265 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitriy Belorukov Premier Liga · 2014 | 31 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Ludovic Baal Ligue 1 · 2017 | 31 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Felipe Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Marvin Plattenhardt Bundesliga · 2023 | 31 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Emiliano Moretti Serie A · 2014 | 33 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Henrique Ligue 1 · 2014 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Matías Silvestre Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Denys Kulakov Premier Liga · 2016 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2022 | Granada CF | Getafe | €750k | €8.0M |
| 14 Jul 2019 | Sporting | Granada CF | €3.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Dep. La Coruña | Sporting | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 3 Aug 2018 | Sporting | Dep. La Coruña | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Chaves | Sporting | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 15 Jul 2017 | Sporting | Chaves | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting B | Sporting | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Belenenses | Sporting B | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sporting B | Belenenses | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Estoril U17 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Estoril U15 | Estoril U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Estoril Y | Estoril U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.