Domingos Duarte

31 yrs · Centre-back · Portugal
Getafe CF · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 192 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€800k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€213k – €1.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.8M – €6.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€355k – €736k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€1.8M – €5.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€213k – €1.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.8M – €6.0M
Projected value (24 months)€355k – €736k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Domingos Duarte's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-6.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 80

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh80.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €541k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationNeutral-7% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €12.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2929 (86% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
80 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1446
Opponent strength
1499
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€355k – €736k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 31 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -53% to -30%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Getafe CFLaligaCB34292986%110.060.09149914460.95
2024/25Getafe CFLaligaCB22186154%100.050.07154613950.95
2023/24Getafe CFLaligaCB1590827%000.000.05153514151.00
2022/23Getafe CFLaligaCB31265778%020.070.09151914340.98
2021/22Granada CFLaligaCB21168949%100.050.08152314151.05
2020/21Granada CFLaligaCB28227567%100.040.06157014661.10
2019/20Granada CFLaligaCB36308690%310.120.15155215121.16
2017/18GD ChavesLiga PortugalCB30267787%000.000.02134813320.64
2016/17CF Os BelenensesLiga PortugalCB28250082%100.040.05135312650.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyGetafe CF16900—
2024/25Copa Del ReyGetafe CF548300—
2023/24Copa Del ReyGetafe CF218010—
2022/23Copa Del ReyGetafe CF330000—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueGranada CF9685001538
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingGranada CF2135001464
2020/21Copa Del ReyGranada CF212500—
2019/20Copa Del ReyGranada CF326500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Dmitriy Belorukov
Premier Liga · 2014
31€1.2M€600kfell
Ludovic Baal
Ligue 1 · 2017
31€1.5M€500kfell
Felipe
Serie A · 2017
33€800k€500kfell
Marvin Plattenhardt
Bundesliga · 2023
31€1.0M€800kfell
Emiliano Moretti
Serie A · 2014
33€1.0M€900kflat
Henrique
Ligue 1 · 2014
31€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Matías Silvestre
Serie A · 2017
33€2.0M€800kfell
Denys Kulakov
Premier Liga · 2016
30€1.5M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
11 Jul 2022Granada CFGetafe€750k€8.0M
14 Jul 2019SportingGranada CF€3.5M€2.5M
30 Jun 2019Dep. La CoruñaSportingFree / loan€2.5M
3 Aug 2018SportingDep. La CoruñaFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2018ChavesSportingFree / loan€2.0M
15 Jul 2017SportingChavesFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2017Sporting BSportingUnknown€1.0M
30 Jun 2017BelenensesSporting BFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2016Sporting BBelenensesFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2014Sporting U19Sporting BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Sporting U17Sporting U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Estoril U17Sporting U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Estoril U15Estoril U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Estoril YEstoril U15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.