Gelson Martins
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gelson Martins's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-7.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.45x the positional average in the league (1285 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1285 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1550
- Opponent strength
- 1200
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €588k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo); relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -71% (IQR -83% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1285 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RW | 21 | 1285 | 55% | 2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 1200 | 1550 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RW | 21 | 1538 | 66% | 6 | 6 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 1270 | 1525 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RW | 5 | 175 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.28 | 1212 | 1490 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | RW | 11 | 341 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1388 | 1485 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | RW | 32 | 1920 | 56% | 4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 1421 | 1599 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LW | 23 | 1559 | 46% | 3 | 4 | 0.40 | 0.38 | 1441 | 1549 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | RW | 21 | 1682 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 1449 | 1426 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | RW | 16 | 1393 | 41% | 4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 1464 | 1396 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RW | 8 | 223 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1447 | 1736 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RW | 31 | 2687 | 88% | 8 | 9 | 0.57 | 0.35 | 1333 | 1605 | 0.64 |
| 2016/17 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RW | 32 | 2772 | 91% | 6 | 13 | 0.62 | 0.38 | 1346 | 1521 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RW | 29 | 1208 | 39% | 4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.23 | 1353 | 1608 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 9 | 723 | 3 | 0 | 1640 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 7 | 597 | 0 | 2 | 1504 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 5 | 293 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 1670 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1382 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 4 | 285 | 1 | 0 | 1537 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 6 | 226 | 0 | 0 | 1454 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 5 | 475 | 1 | 0 | 1629 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 6 | 463 | 1 | 2 | 1716 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Sporting CP | 2 | 170 | 1 | 1 | 1472 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 6 | 506 | 0 | 0 | 1700 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 6 | 274 | 1 | 2 | 1535 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Sporting CP | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1671 |
| 2015/16 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1719 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Dossevi Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Taison Premier Liga · 2021 | 33 | €7.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Tiquinho Soares Super League 1 · 2022 | 31 | €4.5M | €2.7M | fell |
| Christian Bolaños Superliga · 2013 | 29 | €1.8M | €750k | fell |
| Júnior Moraes Premier Liga · 2021 | 34 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
| Ryan Babel Super Lig · 2020 | 34 | €2.0M | €350k | fell |
| Volkan Sen Super Lig · 2017 | 30 | €3.3M | €150k | fell |
| Mateo Cassierra Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €3.5M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2024 | Monaco | Olympiacos | €3.0M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Atlético | Monaco | €30.0M | €28.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Monaco | Atlético | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 27 Jan 2019 | Atlético | Monaco | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 25 Jul 2018 | Sporting | Atlético | €22.0M | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sporting B | Sporting | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | CF Benfica S15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.