
Fahd Moufi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fahd Moufi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €427k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2089 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1218
- Opponent strength
- 1337
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €357k – €818k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -53% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | RB | 24 | 2089 | 77% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 1337 | 1218 | 0.56 |
| 2022/23 | Portimonense SC | Liga Portugal | RB | 31 | 2639 | 86% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1403 | 1224 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Portimonense SC | Liga Portugal | RB | 31 | 2758 | 90% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1369 | 1288 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | Portimonense SC | Liga Portugal | RB | 26 | 2158 | 71% | 0 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 1353 | 1279 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | RB | 26 | 2223 | 73% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1381 | 1250 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | RB | 13 | 992 | 32% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1388 | 1299 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | RB | 2 | 80 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1256 | 1283 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Abascal Liga Portugal · 2024 | 30 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Ouka Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 29 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Jordi Amat Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 30 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Dmytro Gryshko Premier Liga · 2016 | 31 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Benjamin Delacourt Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 30 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| William Alves Liga Portugal · 2016 | 29 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Vasco Fernandes Liga Portugal · 2017 | 31 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Marc Valiente Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 31 | €700k | €550k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2025 | Wydad AC | Orenburg | €100k | €1.0M |
| 13 Jan 2025 | Hajduk Split | Wydad AC | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 11 Jul 2023 | Portimonense | Hajduk Split | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Sept 2020 | Tondela | Portimonense | Free / loan | €800k |
| 14 Jul 2017 | Olymp. Lyon B | Tondela | Unknown | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | CS Sedan | Olymp. Lyon B | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Olymp. Lyon B | CS Sedan | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | FC Mulhouse U19 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.