Fahd Moufi

30 yrs · Right-back · Morocco
FC Orenburg · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 177 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€900k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€188k – €799k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€590k – €1.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€357k – €818k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€209k – €838k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€188k – €799k
Model value (performance-implied)€590k – €1.0M
Projected value (24 months)€357k – €818k
Dashed line: current market value (€900k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Fahd Moufi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 69

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average27th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €427k vs market €900k
Expected appreciationVery low-40% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2089 (77% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.09
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.16
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
27 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1218
Opponent strength
1337
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€357k – €818k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -53% to -21%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
48%–200%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
72%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC OrenburgPremier LigaRB24208977%110.090.16133712180.56
2022/23Portimonense SCLiga PortugalRB31263986%120.100.11140312240.68
2021/22Portimonense SCLiga PortugalRB31275890%110.070.09136912880.67
2020/21Portimonense SCLiga PortugalRB26215871%050.210.26135312790.61
2019/20CD TondelaLiga PortugalRB26222373%010.040.08138112500.59
2018/19CD TondelaLiga PortugalRB1399232%100.090.12138812990.65
2017/18CD TondelaLiga PortugalRB2803%000.000.12125612830.64

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupFC Orenburg14500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rodrigo Abascal
Liga Portugal · 2024
30€800k€400kfell
Ouka
Jupiler Pro League · 2013
29€600k€400kfell
Jordi Amat
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
30€1.0M€800kfell
Dmytro Gryshko
Premier Liga · 2016
31€500k€200kfell
Benjamin Delacourt
Jupiler Pro League · 2015
30€500k€350kfell
William Alves
Liga Portugal · 2016
29€500k€500kflat
Vasco Fernandes
Liga Portugal · 2017
31€1.0M€300kfell
Marc Valiente
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
31€700k€550kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
9 Aug 2025Wydad ACOrenburg€100k€1.0M
13 Jan 2025Hajduk SplitWydad ACFree / loan€1.0M
11 Jul 2023PortimonenseHajduk SplitFree / loan€1.5M
30 Sept 2020TondelaPortimonenseFree / loan€800k
14 Jul 2017Olymp. Lyon BTondelaUnknown€150k
30 Jun 2017CS SedanOlymp. Lyon BFree / loan€150k
31 Aug 2016Olymp. Lyon BCS SedanFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Olymp. Lyon U19Olymp. Lyon BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013FC Mulhouse U19Olymp. Lyon U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.